"Iran will continue to up the stakes and threaten most of its neighbours" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

On January 16-18, Israel's ambassadors to Eurasia will hold an official meeting in Baku with the participation of high-ranking officials from the country's MFA central office. Israel's ambassador to Baku recently told the media that it is necessary to unite against Iran, which is a problem not only for Azerbaijan but for the entire region: "Countries such as Israel, Azerbaijan, Türkiye and the Arab world should unite to create a bloc against Iran".

Within hours of the interview, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz published another interview with Azerbaijan's ambassador to the US, in which he noted that, despite the close relations that exist between Israel and Azerbaijan, the latter would never become a springboard for possible action against Iran. Such statements may indicate that some issues are being discussed.

It cannot be ruled out that the choice of Baku as a venue for a meeting of Israeli ambassadors will cause another round of tension in Iran-Azerbaijan relations.

We should also note that the report of the International Crisis Group (a think tank for research and conflict prevention), published recently, predicted a war in Iran.

Could all these developments force Iran's ruling regime to cross the red lines? Not only to rattle weapons again on the border with Azerbaijan but to do something else? How likely is it, for example, that Tehran may agree with Yerevan to introduce and deploy its troops in Syunik (Zangazur)? Iran has already opened a consulate in Gafan. Afterward, Azerbaijan announced the opening of its embassy in Israel, which it has not done throughout 30 years of independence out of unwillingness to irk Iran.

Foreign experts have commented on the situation at Caliber.Az's request.

Alexander Gur-Aryeh, a political columnist for the Israeli TV channel ITON.TV, believes that the problem of a nuclear Iran is perhaps the main one that the new Israeli government will have to deal with. February 24 marks the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and paradoxically, it is this war that has been a kind of catalyst in relations between the West, the US, Israel, and Iran, he notes.

"The fact is that, until recently, Israel almost single-handedly, like a pesky fly, pestered both European partners and the States, constantly pointing out that the negotiations with Iran, which were going on at a low-grade pace, would lead nowhere. Tehran continues to develop its nuclear programme. But the war against Ukraine has changed the situation fundamentally. The fact is that Iran, apparently having not really thought through its strategy, has chosen the wrong side. That is, it actively supports Russia in the war against Ukraine, it has become a serious supplier of drones, and it plans to supply ballistic missiles. Some missiles are already being supplied, although they don't talk about it. So Iran confronts the West militarily, i.e. not in a hypothetical sense, but in a military sense. That is not in a hypothetical sense - by creating a nuclear bomb, which may or may not happen, but it directly got involved in a war between Russia and the collective West. Because everybody understands very well that it is not only a war between Russia and Ukraine.

So Iran has entered the war on Russia's side. This means that all negotiations with it on the nuclear programme are even more problematic. Not to mention the fact that in principle these negotiations were deadlocked and could lead nowhere. The United States has finally understood that it will have to deal with the problem of Iran's nuclear programme in some way. In this situation, there is a sharp increase in the activity of Israeli security and intelligence agencies, which are trying in every way to explain to the Americans what is happening in Iran.

US Presidential National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to arrive in Israel in the coming days, and he is to be followed by State Department chief Blinken. Of course, one of the main discussions during their meetings here will be the issue of nuclear Iran," the Israeli observer said.

In this situation, Israel is trying its best to rally its allies, Gur-Aryeh noted.

"I mean, firstly, the US, and secondly, Azerbaijan. The fact is that Azerbaijan is a strategic ally of Israel. This also includes the Sunni Arab states, which are part of the so-called 'Abrahamic agreement'. This agreement is not only commercial and political but also military. Therefore, within the framework of this agreement, Israel is forming a kind of alliance against Iran. This alliance will be joined by Türkiye, with which they have been establishing relations lately. By the way, Baku's participation made this establishment possible. They even say that the President of Azerbaijan was a direct moderator that implemented the reconciliation between Israel and Türkiye," he said.

According to our interlocutor, the Israeli military structures, while not much flaunting their activities, are nevertheless working on all sorts of options for conflict with Iran.

"Can Iran, backed into a corner, at some point cross the red line and not only rattle weapons on the border with Azerbaijan but also take some action? Most likely, this will not happen. At least, that's what Israeli analysts think. Because Tehran realizes very well that a serious provocation will cause an instant response. The thing is that the situation has now become so tense that the Iranians understand that they alone cannot stand against the coalition of the West, Israel, and the Arab states. Therefore, the Iranians are unlikely to worsen relations with Azerbaijan and turn from verbal rhetoric to military actions. It is clear that they are encouraged by Russia's support to a certain extent, but they can clearly see on the example of the Ukrainian campaign how much the Russian army is weakened now, and how ineffective it is. In other words, it is almost impossible to expect any help from it. The only thing they can expect is some supplies and some assistance for their nuclear programme from Russia, but it is not the usual military assistance that they might really need. No one is ready to render such assistance to Iran," the expert said.

In fact, Iran's army is in very poor shape, he said. The air force is almost 90% old Soviet aircraft, which were delivered to Iran back in the 1970s. There are some American planes, but they are also obsolete. In other words, this entire air armada is practically useless; it will be destroyed in the first hours, not days, of the proposed war.

"But nevertheless, as the Americans repeat, all the cards are on the table. They have not yet given up hope that somehow a deal can be reached with Tehran, but the Israelis are sceptical. Because any agreement that can be reached will be ignored by Iran. Therefore, the view of the Israeli leadership is that Iran must be stopped before it is too late, by any means necessary," Gur-Aryeh said.

As Oleksandr Krayev, an expert of the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, noted in his turn, as a result of the aggressive actions of the Russian Federation, which became in fact a starting point, a catalyst of instability not only in Central and Eastern Europe but globally and especially in Eurasia, we see that metastases of this aggression manifest themselves in the Middle East as well. And accordingly, Iran's aggression, expansion of its aggressive actions, potential strengthening of its geopolitical interests, and confrontation with Israel, the United States, Ukraine, and potential confrontation with Azerbaijan do take place.

"We have to understand that Iran will continue to up the stakes and threaten most of its neighbours either by direct military intervention or by some other, hybrid methods. However, it seems to me that in this case, it will again repeat the situation that they had with Saudi Arabia. Many people surely remember how Iran threatened Saudi Arabia with military intervention, and military action on its territory, even though US military bases are stationed there. But in the end, the common response of the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia itself, the buildup of troops, and the preparations for such an invasion have nullified any rhetoric by Tehran and shown that not only was it almost impossible, but it would be devastating for the Iranian regime itself.

It seems to me that in the case in question we would also be dealing rather with threats, with ideological and political confrontation. At the same time, I am quite sure that at this stage Iran will not dare to engage in direct hostilities. Given the complexity of regional processes, and even more so given the attention which Iran is now receiving from key Western players because of arms deliveries to Russia, I do not think Tehran is ready to open another front in its political and military fight," Krayev concluded.