Is Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal possible by late 2024? Pashinyan signals optimism

Despite the complex domestic situation in Armenia due to protests sparked by the border demarcation process and the return of four villages in the Gazakh district to Azerbaijan, the government of Nikol Pashinyan is currently demonstrating readiness to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. At least in words.

Thus, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told reporters in the courtyard of the National Assembly that “every day is a wonderful opportunity to sign a peace treaty.” “I hope that an agreement will be reached, more precisely, this agreement was reached on October 6, 2022, in Prague, then in Sochi, Brussels. The key principles have been agreed upon, what remains is to reproduce them in the text of the peace treaty. I think we have an opportunity to complete this work as soon as possible,” Pashinyan said.

By the way, he made a statement with the same full optimism immediately after the protocol on the delimitation of the border section was signed between Baku and Yerevan in mid-May. "I consider it a great success that the commissions of Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed the protocol. For the first time, we have a delimited border. This is the cornerstone of our sovereignty, the level of security will increase," Pashinyan said after a meeting of the vice premiers of the two countries, Shahin Mustafayev and Mher Grigoryan, on May 15.

The positive rhetoric of the Armenian authorities regarding the settlement of relations with Azerbaijan inspires cautious optimism about Nikol Pashinyan's readiness to continue following the peace agenda until the end. The statements of the Armenian Prime Minister clearly indicate his confidence in the support of the Armenian population, or rather, that they will prefer a “bad” peace over war, which is advocated by Armenian revanchists led by the clergy.

It's appropriate to remind that Pashinyan personally conducted campaigning in this direction as early as March of this year during a meeting with residents of the Tavush region (Tovuzgala) bordering Azerbaijan, persuading them that border demarcation and compromise on village issues were necessary to prevent a military clash with Baku. "The authorities of Armenia have started demarcation and delimitation to prevent war with Azerbaijan," the Armenian Prime Minister stated at that time.

Judging by the fact that the protest movement, led by the Karabakh clan and the clergy, has not yet had a significant effect and has not led to a change of power in Armenia, Pashinyan has been able to convince not only the residents of the Tavush region but also a large part of the country's population of the rightness of his steps and actions. Therefore, they do not succumb to the revanchists' provocations. Perhaps this is because Armenian society does not want the return to power of the Karabakh clan.

Moreover, it should not be overlooked that with Pashinyan coming to power, the socio-economic situation in Armenia has improved.

And one more nuance. Pashinyan promises Armenia European integration, which finds support among the majority of the Armenian population. However, as stated by Alexey Naumov, the leading expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs in a conversation with Caliber.Az, Armenia's accession to the European Union is excluded due to geographical and political reasons.

"Rather, Nikol Pashinyan is using the topic of the European Union to mobilize his political electorate and political allies. He is essentially selling people a European future in exchange for the support of the population. So, Armenia will not be accepted into the EU; it's just a beautiful carrot that Pashinyan lures Armenians with.

As for his statements about signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan by the end of this year, I personally doubt it. It is most likely another carrot that Pashinyan is showing to his voters to ensure their continued support. No peace agreement will be fully peaceful until the delimitation and demarcation of the border are completed; this is not a one-year issue. We see the problem Armenia faces in delimitating and demarcating just one section of the border and what it leads to. Therefore, talking about achieving a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan by the end of this year is not relevant," Naumov said.