Israel – Hamas clash threatens the entire volatile region Last stop before the peace

On October 7, new deadly clashes occurred in the Middle East between the Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) based in the Gaza Strip and the Israeli security forces. While Hamas's surprise attack on Israel was described as unprecedented in the last few decades, it also raised questions about the limitations of Israel's well-known intelligence forces.

Reportedly, fighters from the Islamist group Hamas killed 700 Israelis and abducted dozens more as they attacked Israeli towns on Saturday, the deadliest incursion into Israeli territory since Egypt and Syria’s attacks in the Yom Kippur war 50 years ago.

In response, Israeli air strikes hit housing blocks, tunnels, a mosque and homes of Hamas officials in Gaza on Sunday, killing more than 400 people, including 20 children, in keeping with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow of mighty vengeance. The operation from Gaza included not just 3,000 rockets but an actual invasion of southern Israeli cities.

The Hamas takeover of the Erez border crossing was vital to the operation. According to the Palestinian media, 130 Israelis, including IDF officials, were being held captive in Gaza as the conflict continues.

Hamas's brutal attacks against Israel highlighted Iran's role in the process. As the arch-foe of Tel Aviv, Iran has been supporting and funding various proxy forces, including the Islamist Hamas group. As such, Iran, as an ally of Hamas, congratulated the organization on the attack, though its mission to the United Nations said Tehran was not involved in the attacks.

Iran's primary motivation in the process is to destabilize Israel amid the current political unrest against PM Netanyahu's government and divided political establishment. The destabilization of Israel would enable Iran to secure its borders and sphere of influence in the region, opening more space for the destructive proxy warfare strategy.

In this vein, Netanyahu now faces the biggest crisis of his political career. From Iran’s perspective, it was time to show that its influence along the Palestinian fault line was stronger than ever.

In addition to death tolls, Iran's support to Hamas and Israel's crackdown on Gaza will put Tel Aviv’s normalization with Saudi Arabia on hold and trigger anti-Israel sentiments in other Arab countries. Earlier, demanding stronger security guarantees from Washington as its price for recognizing Israel, Saudi Arabia has indicated that the Israeli government must show signs of accommodating Palestinian demands for greater economic and political control.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government would have little prospect of considering such concessions given the weekend's events. Considering the missile attacks on Gaza as a part of Israel's countermeasures, more Arab communities across the globe pressure their respective governments to enter the scene along with the Islamic community in supporting the Palestinian people.

Consequently, Israel’s retaliation against Hamas will be vastly complicated by the presence of Israeli hostages in the organization’s Gaza tunnels and other sites in the densely crowded strip. Nevertheless, the upcoming ground operation of the IDF in Gaza will boost the number of casualties on both sides and ignite Tel Aviv's relations with the Arab world.

However, nearly all Western countries fully supported Israel and offered assistance against Hamas. The U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, pledged that the U.S. would keep pressing for diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East.

Moreover, the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hamas may provoke a reaction from Hezbollah, another major Iranian Shi'a proxy force based in Lebanon, from the northern parts.

The possible entrance of Hezbollah into the current standoff may cause more considerable regional tensions and include Iranian regular forces. Therefore, the leading Western powers will likely avoid blaming Iran directly for the Al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by Hamas, instead boosting pressure on international terrorism.

The renewed deadly escalation between Israel and Palestinian non-state actor Hamas will have broader consequences at home and overseas. Tel Aviv may witness diplomatic confrontation with the Gulf monarchies, rising discontent against the ruling ultranationalist government of Benjamin Netanyahu and vocal calls on Israel – Palestine reconciliation to avoid future bloodshed.

Simply put, the Saudi-Israel deal must be back in play once the fighting stops. More than ever, an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan needs to be linked to a broader regional realignment.

In the post-conflict period, PM Netanyahu, if he survives politically, will face the challenging task of forming a new unity government involving prominent opposition leaders like Yair Lapid and Bennie Gantz that may strengthen Tel Aviv's stance against Iran and its proxy network.