Israel-Hamas clashes upend ambitions in the Middle East Sympathizers versus realists

Since the Hamas militant organization based in the Gaza Strip launched a series of attacks against Israel in the southern direction, the Middle Eastern region witnessed an unprecedented scale of deadly escalation that left thousands dead and injured in just one week. In addition to military actions, Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza stirred mixed sentiments in the West and Middle East.

While some countries acknowledged Israel’s right to self-defence against brutal terrorist acts, others believe that Tel Aviv's reaction is way too harsh towards the densely populated and fragile Gaza and its residents.

Indeed, Israel's leading allies and partners like the United States (US), Germany, and France unilaterally supported Tel Aviv's military operation in Gaza with minor concerns regarding the civilian Palestinians. However, the most recent hospital explosion in Gaza, allegedly hit by an Israeli missile, sparked anger in Western and Middle Eastern societies, spilling into antisemitism demonstrations in big cities.

As a result, some Western countries, such as the United Kingdom (UK), Russia, China, and Italy, urged Israel to abstain from targeting densely populated areas and civilian infrastructure, referring to the principles of international law.

Undoubtedly, the stance of the abovementioned countries strained diplomatic relations with Israel. Among all, Russia actively reiterated that Israel's war on Gaza must end and an independent state of Palestine must be established to resolve this protracted conflict. Such a catastrophic security shock in the Middle East was probably a welcome surprise for a Russian president whose strategic priority is to divert Western support and attention away from Ukraine.

Russia has enjoyed warm and constructive relations with Israel in recent years. But since its invasion of Ukraine last year, Moscow has dramatically increased its military ties to Iran, a sworn enemy of Israel and a state known to have provided financial and material support to the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Russia occupies a somewhat unique position in Middle Eastern geopolitics, having managed to forge alliances with countries that are sworn enemies — such as Iran and Israel, and Iran and fellow oil-producing powerhouse Saudi Arabia — as well as positioning itself as a power broker.

In his first comments about the Hamas incursion, Putin said the explosion of violence between Israel and the Palestinians showed that US policy had failed in the Middle East and had taken no account of the needs of the Palestinians.

Similarly, Türkiye prompted its rhetoric against Israeli air raids in Gaza, calling for more restraint and defining the operation as "genocide". Unlike Russia or China, Ankara directly holds communication with Hamas and does not label it as a terrorist organization. Indeed, Ankara's rising anti-Israeli rhetoric and mass demonstrations in front of the Israeli embassy risk a renewed diplomatic crisis with Tel Aviv.

Separately, Erdogan warned his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi against steps that would increase tensions in the Israel-Hamas war during a phone call between the two leaders, amid lingering tensions between Israeli forces and Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah along Israel’s northern border.

However, Türkiye’s and Israel’s strategic ally – Azerbaijan, demonstrated a slightly different position, sticking with a balanced approach. Thus, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov recently stated that Azerbaijan will allocate $1.6 million for Palestinian refugees, citing the necessity of establishing an independent state of Palestine.

Azerbaijan has long been a close partner of Israel, particularly in the defence field. As such, Israel is a key weapon supplier of Azerbaijan and assists it in producing modern defence technology.

Nevertheless, the international community condemns Israel's ongoing operation and urges it to halt the scheduled ground operation, which may inflict grave consequences both for Gaza and the Israeli military. In this vein, US President Joe Biden, during his trip to Israel, suggested the Israeli government "postpone or find an alternative to ground operation in Gaza", considering the rising number of death tolls among civilians.

Another global power – China, also has been unequivocal about its disapproval of Israel’s retaliatory air strikes on the Gaza Strip. Beijing believes that Israel's actions have gone beyond the scope of self-defence.

China, which has been striving to make inroads in the Middle East and to present itself as an alternative power for states in the region to align themselves with, has insisted that it just wants peace. But as the Israel-Hamas war looks set to escalate into a broader regional conflict, Beijing appears reluctant to intervene meaningfully despite its potential influence.

Regardless of the level of criticism and condemnation, Israel will unlikely cease military operations in Gaza as it apprehends the situation strictly from a national security prism while undermining all other reasons behind it.