Israeli mass unrest may lead to security cataclysms Putting controversial reform to vote

After six months of street protests, parliamentary manoeuvring, compromise talks, and increasingly urgent pleas from the US, on July 23, Israeli lawmakers began debating the first judicial reform bill to come up for a final vote. The proposal for significant changes to the judicial system in Israel came up shortly after Benjamin Netanyahu assumed power in Israel after a brief absence and established an ultranationalist government, which simultaneously dragged criticism at home and abroad.

Netanyahu's religious-nationalist government launched the overhaul in January 2023, soon after it was sworn in. The proposed changes included Supreme Court curbs while granting the government decisive powers in appointing judges. However, amid increasing alarm among Israel's Western allies, swelling unrest, and a falling shekel currency, Netanyahu suspended the push in late March to allow for talks with opposition parties. Moreover, many fear that Netanyahu - who is embroiled in a long-running corruption trial, which he denies - and his hard-right government will curb judicial independence, with severe diplomatic and economic fallout. As a result, Israel is experiencing one of its most dramatic internal crises since its establishment 75 years ago, where even the army is torn over the judicial overhaul plan advanced by the Netanyahu government.

The internal stability was further ignited by the fact that PM Netanyahu had had a minor heart attack and undergone surgery, which came ahead of a key vote in parliament. The ruling government insists that the “reform” is necessary to create a balance between two main courts, while Netanyahu’s opponents of the plan call it a coup and say it threatens to turn Israel into a dictatorship by removing the most significant check on government actions. If successful, the proposed bill would strip the Supreme Court of the power to declare government decisions unreasonable. Other elements of the judicial overhaul would give the coalition government more control of the appointment of judges and would remove independent legal advisors from government ministries.

Indeed, the domestic mass riots and endless protests became a burden for Netanyahu's government at a time when the new government was seeking reconciliation with the immediate neighbourhood, including Türkiye. Amid demonstrations and upheaval, PM Netanyahu was set to visit Ankara to meet President Erdogan after fourteen years to discuss steps to improve cooperation as well as international and regional issues. The invitation came amid gradual Ankara-Tel Aviv diplomatic normalization to improve ties after years of locking horns swiftly. However, the visit was postponed due to Netanyahu's health problems. Nevertheless, Tel Aviv will likely re-arrange the official trip as soon as possible, considering the significance of reconciliation with Ankara.

Prior to Netanyahu's visit, Israeli president Isaac Herzog paid an official visit to Türkiye to mend ties and pave the way for further political dialogue and high-level visits. Although some had speculated that Netanyahu’s reelection in November would derail the positive trajectory due to their past disagreements, Israel was one of the first countries to dispatch rescue workers after the February 6 devastating earthquakes in southeast Türkiye.

Currently, Netanyahu's government's stakes are very high, with the local military elite voicing their discontent with the ongoing chaos and unrest. The crisis may be halted if the government will overturn the changes, which is unlikely at this moment.

Mr. Netanyahu appears determined to push through the reforms, though he says he is still "open for negotiations" after talks between the two sides collapsed. Notwithstanding, if some members of his far-right government will take a step back on the government's position, Netanyahu will have no chance but to retreat from his stance as without whose support, his government could collapse. For example, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took a stand against the growing number of Israelis vowing to stop volunteering for duty if the government’s controversial judicial overhaul plan becomes law.

Many in the military are cautious that the domestic turmoil may embolden Iran to test Israel’s internal cohesion and resolve, as the current inner tumult is far greater than at any other moment in its history. Undoubtedly, the fact that some members of the Israeli Air Forces refuse to fulfil their duties in light of the unrest could have grave consequences in terms of security. The question many ask themselves is whether the Israeli premier can pump the brakes at this point.