Lachin Summit and Merz's missiles Caliber.Az weekly review

Caliber.Az editorial team presents the latest episode of the program “Sobitiya” (Events) with Murad Abiyev, featuring the main news of the outgoing week related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

On May 28, Independence Day, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceremoniously inaugurated the Lachin International Airport, the third airport opened in the liberated territories of Azerbaijan. On the same day in Lachin, a summit took place attended by Presidents Aliyev, Erdoğan, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. In their speeches, the leaders of the three countries once again emphasised the historical and cultural unity of their peoples, the strategic nature of relations between their states, and their determination to fully support and develop these ties.

Considerable focus was placed on economic matters, especially the countries’ involvement in major global transport initiatives such as the Development Road, the Middle Corridor, and the North-South route. The leaders also highlighted the importance of expanding cooperation in information technology and artificial intelligence.

Investment topics were also discussed in depth. Ilham Aliyev specifically pointed out that Azerbaijan has invested $20 billion in Türkiye and intends to invest an additional $2 billion in Pakistan’s economy during the initial phase.

This marks the second summit between the three countries, following their initial meeting at the SCO summit in Astana in July 2024. This demonstrates a clear and steady progression in their cooperation. If this alliance continues to develop comprehensive ties—military cooperation included—it has the potential to become a significant player on the international stage.

Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Barro visited Yerevan. Coming shortly after the high-profile visit of Lavrov, the French minister’s trip was clearly intended to send a message to Moscow that the situation is more complex than it appears. During the visit, both sides signed agreements effectively expanding the mandates of various French “soft power” institutions in Armenia, including the French Development Agency (AfD), Proparco (the company supporting economic cooperation), and Expertise France. The latter will focus on activities in Armenia aimed at strengthening the capacities of local authorities, governments, and public institutions. In practice, this could signal an increased influence of French structures — including intelligence agencies — within the Armenian government.

Well, if all this is serious, we can expect a clash between Russian and French spheres of influence in Armenia. Signs of such a confrontation have already begun to emerge.

Known for his personally traumatic visit to Yerevan, Bagrat Galstanyan decided to lean on the spiritual values of Armenian society by accusing Prime Minister Pashinyan and the First Lady of the sin of adultery, claiming they were not legally married. As expected, the prime minister and his wife responded. While Anna Akopyan showed restraint, merely accusing the Armenian clergy of pedophilia, the prime minister’s anger was far less contained. Believing that people like Galstanyan bring shame to the republic — or rather, that such people should be shamed throughout the country — he posted a social media statement exposing the weary priest in disgraceful, almost incestuous relations, using very blunt language. In short, he burned him with words.

It’s not that we particularly enjoy dwelling on all this, but it’s important to highlight the level to which the confrontation between Pashinyan and the pro-Russian opposition—led by the Karabakh clan and using the Armenian Church as a battering ram—has escalated.

Having no substantive arguments against Pashinyan, the opposition deliberately drags the fight down to the realm of moral concepts—more precisely, moral code—in the hope that the institution of marriage still holds sacred meaning in Armenian society.

Pashinyan, seemingly harnessing the energy of his opponent, pushed him out of the swamp he was stuck in straight into a pit of filth. What was the result? The Armenian Church’s image took a severe hit, but at the same time, Pashinyan gained not only political but also personal enemies. It’s quite expected that, given these circumstances, repression against those involved in the church-sex scandal will intensify in Armenia, all to ensure the prime minister’s personal security.

Ukraine – Russia

Russia is amassing significant reserves in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine in preparation for an offensive aimed at creating the buffer zone previously announced by Vladimir Putin. This has been reported by several Ukrainian and Western media outlets.

At the same time, Moscow is determined not to cede the initiative on the diplomatic front. It is persistently calling on the Ukrainian side for a second meeting in Istanbul on June 2. However, before agreeing to negotiations, the Ukrainians are requesting to see the much-discussed Russian memorandum outlining the proposed agenda—while the Russians say they will only present it in Istanbul.

However, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Moscow’s demands have already become known—and most of them are directed not at Kyiv, but at the West. Besides insisting on Ukraine’s neutral status and so-called demilitarisation and “denazification,” Lavrov also called for a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion and the lifting of sanctions against Russia. In response, the United States, through special envoy Kellogg, indicated a willingness to consider Russia’s demands regarding NATO.

In the meantime, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stirred up a confusing game. First, he announced that Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States had lifted restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine. This statement, made also on behalf of other countries, already contained a hidden catch. When curious journalists tried to clarify the details in a naive attempt to understand the announcement, Merz only added to the confusion by saying that such permission had actually been granted a year ago.

In any case, experts warn that even if Berlin decides to supply Kyiv with the famous Taurus missiles, their numbers will not be enough to turn the tide of the war.

However, during his meeting with Zelenskyy in Berlin, Merz committed to building facilities in Ukraine for the production of long-range missile systems. This already looks like a more substantial form of support. It seems Merz is aiming to outpace Macron in the race for European leadership, and aid to Ukraine is a powerful lever for that.

Of course, only time will tell how effective this weapons production project in Ukraine will be. Nonetheless, at the level of international image, Berlin has clearly outperformed Paris.

Middle East

Another hostage deal is expected between Israel and Hamas. According to an American plan, the agreement would include an immediate 60-day ceasefire in the enclave and the release of the 10 remaining live hostages within the first week, in two stages. Hamas would also hand over the bodies of 18 deceased hostages to Israel. In return, Israel would release Palestinian prisoners according to previously agreed lists. It is reported that Tel Aviv has already agreed to Whitcoff’s plan, while Hamas is still considering it.

While Israel appears compelled to compromise with Hamas, it seems to be tightening the noose elsewhere. The Israeli government has approved the construction of 22 new settlements in the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank—the largest expansion in decades.

Simultaneously, the 5th round of US-Iran negotiations took place in Rome. Although no concrete results have emerged yet, many signs—including the sly smile of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—suggest that Tehran is succeeding in persuading Washington not to push too hard for a complete ban on uranium enrichment. It appears that for Trump, announcing a deal with Iran is so important that he has frozen military coordination with Israel. Trump wants a stable and balanced Middle East, and from this perspective, he currently sees no point in pushing Iran beyond its red lines or weakening its power. There is little doubt that Tehran will skillfully take advantage of this situation.