Moldova's path to EU: Prospects and challenges Europe offers money, but not the keys

Recent statements by Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean regarding the country's prospects for joining the European Union have once again confirmed that European integration remains one of the main priorities of Chisinau's foreign policy.

At a joint press conference following the ninth meeting of the Moldova–EU Association Council in Brussels—held with the participation of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas and the European Commissioner for Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi—Prime Minister Recean announced that his government had approved the National Programme for EU Accession, the implementation of which is already underway.

"EU accession has already become a new reality for Moldova. The citizens of Moldova have shown that we are already Europeans, and our choice is a future as part of the EU," said Dorin Recean.

Brief background: On December 14, 2023, the European Council decided to launch accession negotiations with Moldova. These talks officially began on June 25, 2024, simultaneously with Ukraine's negotiations. On October 20, 2024, Moldova held the first round of its presidential elections along with a referendum on the country's EU membership.

For her part, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas reaffirmed the Union's support for Moldova’s European course: “You are the first to sign a security and defence partnership with the EU.  We have provided to you nearly €200 million in vital defence aid to support Moldova to modernise its armed forces. And through the EU Growth Plan, we committed €1.9 billion to support your infrastructure and connectivity, among other priorities.”

In the context of Moldova’s European orientation, it is worth noting that in recent years, the official position of Chișinău has been one of actively promoting this path.

Brussels, in turn, supports Chișinău’s European course primarily through substantial financial injections. It is no coincidence that in October last year—just ten days before Moldova’s presidential election and EU integration referendum—European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited the country and pledged a new financial assistance package worth €1.8 billion. Speaking to Moldovan media in Chișinău, she stated that the EU will invest these funds in renovating schools, building two new hospitals, and developing telecommunications, transport, and energy infrastructure, connecting it to the European network.

Notably, this is the largest assistance package Moldova has received since gaining independence in 1991. According to statistics, between 2021 and today, Brussels has provided the country with more than €1 billion in grants and loans aimed at enhancing cooperation in security and defence and supporting domestic reforms.

On the one hand, all these significant factors create certain preconditions for Moldova to become part of the broader European family in the medium term. However, given the complex geopolitical realities, the likelihood of its accession to the European Union remains low.

Several important points should be highlighted here. First, despite having obtained EU candidate status, Moldova could remain in this position for many years—or even decades—as demonstrated by the experience of many countries, most notably Türkiye. Although the Republic of Türkiye is a prosperous nation with considerable political weight in international affairs and a member of NATO, its accession to the EU remains stalled, even though its membership would arguably strengthen the European bloc.

When it comes to  Chișinău’s European ambitions, it is telling that the EU signed an Association Agreement with Moldova back in 2014, yet only granted it candidate status in 2022. This suggests that Moldova may well face the same fate as Georgia, which has also been persistently knocking on the EU’s door, despite current tensions in relations between Tbilisi and Brussels.

At the same time, while Georgia’s path to EU membership has been hindered largely due to the West’s overt interference in its internal affairs, the main stumbling block for Moldova lies elsewhere—namely, Ukraine. Official Brussels views Moldova’s accession to the EU as inseparable from that of Kyiv. In other words, without Ukraine, Moldova will not be admitted into the European Union.

Another important factor should not be overlooked: Moldova’s deliberate pivot toward the EU has drawn poorly concealed dissatisfaction from Russia. As a result, Russian-Moldovan relations are currently in deep crisis. Moscow, like the EU, views Moldova’s European integration strictly through the lens of Ukraine, and has already expressed its stance on the matter in rather harsh terms.

For instance, in June 2024, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the EU’s expansion through the accession of Ukraine and Moldova would have a negative impact on the future of the bloc.

“EU enlargement could have a very negative impact on the prospects for the Union’s continued existence,” said the Kremlin spokesman, noting that the EU “has its own internal difficulties in understanding the bloc’s capacity for expansion.”

Although Moldova is not currently economically or politically dependent on Russia, Moscow’s influence continues to linger—primarily through long-standing economic and cultural ties rooted in years of close interaction. Therefore, it would be premature to claim that the country has fully freed itself from the Russian factor. This assumption was confirmed by the results of last year’s presidential election and EU membership referendum. To recall, 50.42% of voters supported constitutional amendments committing Moldova to EU accession, while 49.58% opposed them. In other words, pro-European forces secured only a narrow victory, and the outcome of the presidential race was decided only in the second round.

At the time, some experts interpreted this outcome as a result of Kremlin propaganda and widespread vote-buying by the pro-Russian opposition.

Nevertheless, despite external influences, the official position of Chișinău on European integration remains unchanged. This is confirmed not only by Prime Minister Dorin Recean’s recent statements, but also by the optimistic forecast of President Maia Sandu: “I believe the realistic deadline for concluding negotiations is by the end of 2027. After that, in 2028, we expect the phase when all EU countries will need to express their support and ratify our agreement.”

However, in our view, Moldova’s prospects for European integration depend less on the EU’s political will and readiness to open its doors to Chișinău, and more on the broader geopolitical situation surrounding Ukraine — which, judging by the current trajectory, remains highly uncertain and far from stabilised.

It is still unclear when or how the Russia–Ukraine war will end. What is clear, however, is that without some form of conflict resolution, Ukraine’s accession to the EU will remain off the table. And since Moldova’s candidacy is effectively tied to that of Ukraine, this closed loop continues to stall Moldova’s own progress toward EU membership.