ISW analysis reveals opposition’s strategy to cut off key routes to Syria's Hama

Opposition forces affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are reportedly intensifying efforts to capture the strategic city of Hama, according to an analysis by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released on December 5, 2024.

The report details the military actions of Fateh Mubin, a joint operations centre led by HTS, which appears to have multiple objectives in its ongoing campaign, per Caliber.Az.

The primary goal of Fateh Mubin is to isolate Hama, likely preparing for an eventual offensive. The group is cutting off Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reinforcements arriving from eastern Syria to prevent them from reaching the city. In its push to isolate Hama, opposition forces are bypassing key defensive positions held by the SAA, particularly those north of the city, and are severing vital ground lines of communication (GLOCs) from the east and southeast.

ISW analysts suggest that the opposition forces are using two main axes of attack: one from the west, aiming to take control of the military airport, and another from the east, which seeks to skirt the strategically significant Zayn al-Abidin Hill to the north. The hill, located along the M5 highway, is a tactical vantage point that provides a wide view of the surrounding area.

Meanwhile, an unnamed military source within Fateh Mubin, quoted by al-Quds al-Araby, indicated that the opposition’s strategy involves encircling Hama. This is consistent with ISW’s observation that the opposition has successfully cut two main roads connecting the city to areas to the east. Although the city is not fully isolated, the southern routes remain open.

In response to the growing threat, sources from the Assad administration report that the SAA continues to send reinforcements from Raqqa and Rusafa, anticipating a significant attack on Hama. Despite these efforts, ISW concludes that the rapid progress of opposition forces around the city, with little resistance from the SAA, suggests that their tactical objectives are succeeding.

This analysis reflects ongoing shifts in the battle for Hama, as the situation on the ground remains fluid and dynamic, with the city’s fate hanging in the balance.

By Tamilla Hasanova