"Kopyrkin's statement on the day of Turkmenchay Treaty's 195th anniversary is not accidental" Caliber.Az interview with Ukrainian and Georgian pundits

Sergei Kopyrkin, the Russian ambassador to Armenia, stated that there is no question of Russia's withdrawal from the South Caucasus. It's a vital region and Russia is a de facto part of it, the Russian diplomat stressed.

Kopyrkin recalled that Russia has allied obligations towards Armenia, and the Russian side is not going to forget about them, too. Therefore, any such talks about imaginary plans for Russia's "withdrawal" are speculations.

"In order to feel the role of the Russian presence, we need to talk to the residents of the border regions of Armenia, Karabakh. There is political speculation, and there is real life," the ambassador told Yerevan's Sputnik.

And here, first of all, the reference to Karabakh is alarming. The fact that the Russian Federation has a military base in Gyumri, and that Russian border guards serve on the Armenian-Iranian and Armenian-Turkish border is its business and problem with Armenia. But Karabakh is the sovereign territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and then suddenly Kopyrkin, as ambassador to Armenia, finds it possible for some reason to talk about the Russian presence in Karabakh, and in the context of the statement that "there can be no question of Russia's withdrawal from the South Caucasus".

What is this innuendo from a Russian diplomat? He cannot be unaware of the temporary nature of the Russian peacekeeping contingent (RPC) on the territory of Azerbaijan. So why does Kopyrkin allow himself any reference to "the role of the Russian presence in Karabakh"? Is this some kind of signal to Baku? An attempt by Moscow to insist on its desire to remain in Karabakh even after 2025?

Prominent foreign experts answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

The president of the Ukrainian Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", and editor-in-chief of the magazine "Black Sea Security" Mykhailo Honchar believes that the statement of the Russian ambassador to Armenia Kopyrkin was not accidentally made on February 10, the day of the 195th anniversary of the signing of the Turkmanchay Treaty between Russia and Persia.

"As is known, Persia lost the war in the early 19th century, and the peace treaty that was signed in Gulistan in 1813 strengthened Russia's territorial gains in the South Caucasus. They were finally secured after another war lost by the Persians, already in 1828 in Turkmanchay. The border was drawn through Araz, with Russia for anything north of it, and Persia for anything south of it. Plus Russia assigned itself the mission of "deliverance and protection of Christian peoples from invasions of Persian and Turkish invaders", above all protection of Armenians.

Ring any bells? Today's Russia acts according to the same algorithm as two centuries ago - it is again "protecting" someone (the Orthodox and Russian-speaking people in Ukraine), breaking into someone else's home, which, according to the thieving tradition of Russian tzars and Soviet leaders, is considered to be its own," the expert reminds.

By the way, the 200th anniversary of the Turkmanchay Treaty is not far off - in five years.

"Here Russia, by using its ambassador, is outlining the vector of its actions for the future. They say that everything here is ours, Rtischev and Paskevich fought two centuries ago, and Griboyedov spilled blood, so we acquired Karabakh, Ganja, Baku, Shirvan, Sheki, Derbent, Guba, Talysh, Erivan and Nakhchivan khanates. They say it is all ours and there was no Azerbaijani state in the first place. Again, Armenians must be protected, especially in Karabakh. And Georgia must be protected at the same time. That is the logic of the Kremlin.

For all its seemingly Russian-Turkish mutual understanding and cooperation, Moscow is thinking in terms of inflicting a geopolitical defeat on Ankara and is working covertly to create a Russia-Georgia-Armenia-Iran format in the South Caucasus. This format should block the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, hence the opposition to the creation of the Zangazur corridor, and not only. The Kremlin is thinking with the categories of two-centuries-old: to divide the region for two with Iran, to isolate "Turkic expansion" and throw the West out from the region," Honchar said.

Therefore, the latest statements by the Russian ambassador that there is no question of Russia leaving the South Caucasus, and that Russia is a part of the South Caucasus, indicate the Kremlin's intentions, he beleives. "Only one conclusion can be drawn from this - Russia should be thrown out of the region, taking advantage of the favourable case of its weakening, the military defeats of its army in Ukraine. If this is not done now, it will plunge the South Caucasus into a new war in the next few years under the artificial pretext of protecting its 'Caucasian home' from some 'Turkish-Azerbaijani aggression'," the Ukrainian analyst said.

Conflictologist, Doctor of Sciences in International Relations, Professor of Georgian Technical University Amiran Khevtsuriani pointed out, in turn, that if diplomats like Kopyrkin and other "shining stars" of the Russian political elite are to be believed, not only the South Caucasus but also the territory from the English Channel to the Sea of Japan is vitally important for Russia. At one time they did not intend to leave East Germany, or Eastern Europe as a whole, but they had to.

"They will also have to leave the South Caucasus in the near future. They are all well aware of this, and the current hysteria is caused by this very reality. For my part, I would remind Ambassador Kopyrkin that it is his statements that are speculation and extreme cynicism when he cites the goodwill of the Armenian people towards Russia as an argument. Armenia has learned well what friendship with Russia means and what ties with Russia lead to, and therefore the Armenian public's trust in it is zero. Today the Armenian rescuers, together with the Turks and Azeris, are fighting for the lives of the victims of the disaster in Türkiye, an important event for the future of our region. I have always believed that the key to our peace is in our hands, not in the hands of Moscow. I don't think I was wrong.

Of course, the Russian contingent will leave Karabakh in 2025, but until then confidence between the sides must be restored as much as possible and steps must be taken towards long-term peace. By far the biggest support for this process will come primarily from the EU and the United States, but also from China. South Caucasus is the most important geopolitical area and therefore the stability of that region is not only in our interest but also in theirs. The only people who do not want peace and stability here are the Russians because their mind does not dictate the establishment of good neighbourly, partnership relations with their neighbours, their comfort zone consists only of aggression and provoking destabilisation," Khevsuriani said.