Moldova's EU aspirations in the shadow of Transnistria Journalist from Chisinau on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Dumitru Ciubasenco, a Moldovan politician, journalist, and presidential candidate from "Our Party" in the 2016 elections.

- What was the reaction of official Chisinau to the recently held "congress of MPs of all levels" of Transnistria?

– Chisinau’s reaction to the Tiraspol congress? I would say there was no reaction. Representatives of Moldova called the incident a propaganda event that should not be paid attention to. In the end, everything remained as it was. Chisinau, which has nothing to offer Tiraspol, continues to imitate activities to resolve the Transnistrian conflict. Tiraspol, which does not want to offer anything to Chisinau, continues to pretend to be a struggle for independence. The problem remains frozen. The parties seem to be frozen in their stance, do not make any sudden movements and shift the responsibility for the impasse and tension onto each other. Everyone is waiting for the end of the general uncertainty, and until then they are just trying to survive. The main point of the last congress was precisely this - to survive in extremely difficult conditions, to obtain help for this from external players, primarily Russia, but also the European Union and the OSCE.

- How are the relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol developing currently?

- The relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol have become very shredded. If earlier the parties discussed serious disagreements, negotiated with the participation of international mediators, now instead of all this there is some petty bickering, like between the characters of Ilf and Petrov's novel Panikovsky and Balaganov. At the same time, this result of the congress, where no loud political demands were voiced, was a relief for everyone. Transnistria showed that it exists, the others confirmed that Tiraspol is not interested in their opinion. In the end, everyone is happy. Transnistria, squeezed on one side by Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, and on the other side by Moldova, which supports Ukraine and is itself backed by the EU and NATO, has a very narrow margin for manoeuvre. Tiraspol does not need provocations and unfreezing of the conflict. Neither does Moldova need a military escalation, which can lead to unknown consequences. Russia, while it is focused on Donbass, also does not need a new centre of tension around Transnistria. For the West, unfreezing the Transnistrian conflict would mean that the conflict with Russia has come directly to the border of the EU and NATO, and the West does not want a head-on collision with Russia. Therefore, the status quo suits this side as well.

- Bottom line?

- As a result, Transnistria still remains a "grey zone", convenient for businessmen and swindlers from various jurisdictions. Maybe this is the main motive why everybody agrees not to change anything here.

- Does this mean that the Moldovan authorities intend to resolve the internal conflict without forceful intervention?

- Yes, of course. The Moldovan leadership says that it will resolve the Transdniestrian conflict peacefully and does not consider forceful options, especially since there are no other states, neither Russia nor Ukraine, claiming this region. This is a purely internal problem of Moldova.

- What would you say about Moldova's prospects of joining NATO?

- The Moldovan leadership states that its goal is European integration, i.e. joining the EU, but not joining NATO. At the same time, the boundaries between the EU and NATO are now blurring, the two alliances are closely co-operating and co-ordinating their actions, including in the military-political and military-technical plan. Moldova and NATO have signed an "Action Plan", according to which the national army and security bodies are being transferred to NATO standards. Moldova, as an EU candidate state, joined the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy. In fact, while not formally joining NATO, Moldova, while integrating with the EU, is also integrating with NATO.

- According to your estimates, how long will it take Moldova to join the EU?

- Everyone admits that Moldova received the status of EU candidate in a "package" with Ukraine and is following the neighbouring country like a thread behind a needle. In terms of European integration, Moldova cannot get more than Ukraine. Moldova will not be accepted to the EU until Ukraine is accepted there, and nobody knows when Ukraine will be accepted, if only because it is not known how, when and on what terms the war with Russia going on in the territory of Ukraine will end. Assuming that Ukraine is accepted into the EU, it means that the eastern border of this country becomes the eastern border of the EU. It is not clear where this border is and where it will be in case of freezing of the conflict - not on the maps of 1991 and not according to international law, but in reality, on the ground. Until this issue is clarified, Ukraine's admission to the EU is out of the question.

In my opinion, Moldova's European integration is a big hoax, and Moldova will never be accepted into the EU. Theoretically, it is possible only through the accession of part of its territory, between the Dniester and Prut rivers, to Romania, which is already a member of both the EU and NATO. But this would mean the final loss of Transnistria and the collapse of the Moldovan state. At the same time, everyone will continue to talk enthusiastically about "European prospects" of Moldova, to negotiate about joining the EU, to name some terms of such accession - but all this will be a hoax, which will never result in any real accession to the EU.