On the verge of X-hour Constitution, claims, OSCE Minsk Group, and the EU spy mission

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave another interview to the Public Television Company. As expected, the main messages focused on the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. In particular, he explained why he agreed to the last two points in the text of the peace agreement with Baku. Regarding the refusal to deploy third-party armed forces at the conditional border, the discussion was framed in the context of the so-called EU "monitoring" mission. The Armenian Prime Minister stated that he personally invited the European observers and is grateful to them for their work. At the same time, the head of the Armenian government urged to remember why they were invited to Armenia, namely: "to ensure stability and the factor of peace."

Let’s not argue with Pashinyan about the truth of such an interpretation of the mission’s goals (in this context, it’s not so important) and listen to the continuation of his thoughts. "And the point about the presence of third-party representatives will come into effect after the signing and ratification of the agreement. At least until then, there are no obstacles to the observers’ work," Pashinyan said. In the event of signing, according to him, a stronger factor of peace and stability will emerge. "And this also means that Armenia and the EU will agree on the fate of the mission and the form of its activities," the Prime Minister noted.

As we can see, on one hand, Pashinyan essentially acknowledges that the EU mission’s activities fall under the point about not deploying third-party armed forces at the conditional border. On the other hand, the possibility of reformatting the mission, and therefore its continued existence, raises doubts about whether this point will be fully adhered to by Yerevan. Clearly, to gain Baku’s trust, it would be wise for the Armenian leadership to terminate the mission's mandate before, rather than after, the peace agreement is signed.

Regarding the mutual renouncement of international claims, according to the Prime Minister, this is aimed at ensuring peace and stability, as well as addressing problematic issues. "If there is peace, we must base our actions on peaceful logic," Pashinyan said.

What deserves attention is the following: Pashinyan's further comments confirmed his understanding of the fact that the two preconditions set by Baku for the conclusion of the agreement are still in force.

"We said that there are issues that are negotiable and those that are non-negotiable. Among the negotiable issues is the possibility of dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group. I will repeat once again: the issue of dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group is open for discussion. And we intend to initiate discussions on this matter in the near future," noted the Armenian Prime Minister.

As we expected, the issue of dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group will likely make its way onto the agenda in the coming months. Pashinyan needs to show that the process is moving forward, while also not rushing too much, since the issue of dissolving the Minsk Group serves as a distraction from another, much more important and difficult precondition for Yerevan – amending Armenia’s Constitution to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Here's what Pashinyan said on this matter: "We have the issue of constitutional changes on our agenda. It is planned for 2027. Within our ruling party, there are views on the need to carry out constitutional processes parallel to the 2026 parliamentary elections, to make our political agenda more concrete."

Pashinyan then added an important comment: "This is purely an internal political process. But I must admit that it cannot fail to have regional and global consequences." In other words, he essentially hinted that the issue of removing the territorial claims against Azerbaijan from the Constitution may be included in the referendum agenda.

In general, Pashinyan reiterated what he has already stated several times — plans to hold a constitutional referendum in 2027. However, as we can see, he made an important adjustment, suggesting that such a referendum could also take place in 2026, alongside the parliamentary elections. It is likely that this change is due to the fact that, for Pashinyan, the factor of time has become more critical than before. Clearly, this is not only related to economic but also geopolitical considerations. The objective processes of the collapse of the old world order are threatening to affect the South Caucasus, where Armenia is the weakest link, and thus is at greater risk of suffering more than others. In these circumstances, it is crucial to maintain stable, well-regulated relations with all neighbors.

One can only hope that Pashinyan and his team have the understanding and willpower to bring the peace process with Baku to a logical conclusion. The most difficult step in this process is overcoming the heavy inertia of revanchist thinking within the broader segments of Armenian society. However, this is precisely what constitutes one of the dimensions of the role of individuals in history — the ability to change ideological paradigms. If Pashinyan wants to remain a positive figure in Armenia’s history, he must achieve this, and in the shortest possible time.

Notably, he is trying to do so, albeit in his own way, while also actively rearming and provoking tensions at the border. Let us recall his discourse on the "real Armenia" and the need to reassess the events of 1915. At the same time, it must be understood that the final word lies with the Armenian people. It is they, in the course of voting in the referendum on constitutional amendments, whenever it may take place, who will decide whether they will step into the future or remain in the past.