Skyrocketing migration, tumbling fertility heralding Armenia's demographic crisis What is the root of evil?

In 2019, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan presented the country's development strategy until 2050, according to which the Armenian population should reach 5 million by then. But according to recently published UN estimates, the population of Armenia will decrease by 300 thousand citizens by 2050. Moreover, if the country is able to meet the UN forecast (2.6 million people) by 2050, "it will be a good result," the organisation's report says.

Meanwhile, taking into account current trends, the estimates of Armenian experts are even less favourable than those presented by the UN. According to the data from last year's census, the permanent population is 2,928,914. Moreover, this indicator by the number of citizens actually living in the country does not exceed 2,638,917 people. At the same time, experts do not exclude that the total number of emigrants in the near future will prevail over the number of people entering the country.

According to the same last year's statistics, Armenia's population allegedly increased by about 10,000 people in 2022. If we take into account that the population of any country directly depends on the indicators of birth rate, mortality and migration, then in the case of Armenia the last of the three takes a special place. And since the rapid outflow of the population began much earlier, this topic remains extremely acute in Armenian society.

For example, according to the calculations of Artak Markosyan, an expert at the Armenian Institute of International Relations and Security, the birth rate in Armenia does not ensure the reproduction of the existing population. According to Markosyan, the natural population growth, which totalled 1,917 people in 2020, is one of the lowest in the CIS, and in many other countries as well. And this is more than bad for Armenia's demographic situation.

As for migration, it is well known that the majority of the country's citizens in the last 20-30 years have been trying to leave Armenia by any means. This is explained by the extremely unfavourable social conditions: a virtually collapsed economy, increasing poverty and, as a consequence, a hopeless future for children and young people. Armenians keep leaving, mainly for Russia, but also for Europe and even for the Middle East.

Gagik Yeganyan, head of the Migration Commission of the Public Council, lamented in a conversation with Sputnik Armenia in June 2021 that 1.6-1.7 million people have emigrated from Armenia during the 30 years of independence.

"Of them, 1.1-1.2 million emigrated to Russia, about 150,000 to the United States, 120-150,000 to Europe, and the rest to various CIS countries and other states, from distant New Zealand to Israel," Yeganyan specified.

According to Yeganyan, the most massive outflow of citizens from the country was recorded in 1992-1994, when almost 600,000 citizens left Armenia for good.

The migration situation in the country did not improve in the following years either. According to open sources, between 1995 and 2001, about 250,000 people emigrated from Armenia, i.e. an average of 40-45 thousand per year. The critical situation with the outflow of population did not change much after 2001.

In 2002-2007, the average annual rate of permanent residence departures to other countries was 25-47 thousand, and later, in 2016-18, the exodus from Armenia rose even more, reaching 35-40 thousand people per year.

A new negative emerged later: in 2017, Armenian demographers sounded the alarm, saying that during the years of independence, Armenia has become a country of an ageing nation, because the number of its residents whose age exceeds 63 years is 12.6% of the total population.

All these processes took place and are still taking place against the background of an extremely low birth rate, which was considerably aggravated by the Karabakh wars and the occupation of foreign lands. Thus, 90,000 children were born annually in the country in the 1990s, today this figure varies between 10,000 and 12,000 newborns.

However, not much has changed in the population sphere in Armenia today. And the main reason is the same. The previous authorities in different years of their rule in every possible way hindered the diplomatic settlement of the Karabakh conflict, the unresolved nature of which had a devastating impact on the economy and living standards of citizens and eventually led to the destruction of the demographic and migration systems.

The current authorities are similarly torpedoing the post-conflict peace processes, giving empty promises under the pretext of "the country's development strategy". Such is Armenia's unenviable choice...