South Caucasus looking forward to new EU top officials’ activity Activity towards Azerbaijan to depend on some factors

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will serve as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy instead of Josep Borrell, while former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa will serve as the President of the European Council instead of Charles Michel.

The candidacy of Ursula von der Leyen, who has been nominated for a new term as president of the European Commission, must be approved by the European Parliament on July 15.

Will the EU’s attitude towards the South Caucasus and its three countries change after new top officials are appointed? For example, we know about Ursula von der Leyen’s stable, pragmatic and generally positive attitude towards Azerbaijan. How well will Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa work? Will they actively contribute to a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Foreign experts answered Caliber.Az journalist’s questions.

Estonian political analyst Peeter Taim is sure that the EU’s new top officials will contribute to the normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan.

“Of course, they will contribute to the normalisation of relations. After all, it is a matter of honour for any senior European official or politician to reconcile your countries,” he added.

However, Irish political analyst and historian Patrick Walsh has a different point of view.

“I doubt that the main direction of the EU policy will be changed. It becomes clear that the EU is pursuing an expansionist policy in the South Caucasus, and it has certain goals related to Washington, which are its main goals. These goals are fundamentally anti-Russian, and as a result, the EU will do everything possible to cause discontent in Georgia and bring people to the streets. In Armenia, the goal is to support Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan as a bulwark of democracy in the country,” he said.

“I think that the policy towards Azerbaijan is based on these two Western goals. After all, the EU is more likely to get Armenia and Georgia as members or associate members than Azerbaijan. As a result of these geopolitical considerations, the EU’s top officials will unlikely to promote peace unless they feel that this is in European geopolitical interests and would be detrimental to Moscow's interests,” he noted.

Israeli analyst, political and public figure David Eidelman said that the attitude of the EU’s new top officials towards Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus will depend not only on themselves, but also on many other factors.

“In general, it is difficult to predict their future position in relation to Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus today because it will depend on so many components, among which the dynamics of the elections in the US and, of course, the war in Ukraine,” he noted.

Today, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and others are demonstrating that they are ready to act much more harshly towards the Russian Federation. However, these are just the declarations. While demonstrating a tough position towards Moscow, Kallas and her family acted differently due to the sanctioned cargo while doing business. The cargo was supplied from Estonia somewhere to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan or Armenia through the Russian Federation, and for some reason did not reach the final destination. This was a way of circumventing sanctions. The family firm of Kallas was involved in this process,” he noted.

As for the South Caucasus, the expert thinks that the dynamics will not be related to this region itself, but to other aspects.

“Therefore, today it is difficult to say anything more or less affirmative,” Eidelman added.