Taliban’s zero-sum diplomacy could undermine Afghanistan’s future security

The collapse of the recent Pakistan–Afghanistan peace talks in Istanbul underscores a critical point raised in an Asia Times opinion piece: the Taliban's foreign policy remains deeply entrenched in insularity and obstinacy, preventing Afghanistan from stabilising and engaging constructively with its neighbours.

The peace talks, which were intended to foster dialogue after a series of violent border skirmishes, failed due to the Taliban’s refusal to address cross-border militancy, highlighting the group's continued disregard for the wider regional security dynamics, the piece points out.

"The Afghan side kept deviating from the core issue," Pakistan’s Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, said, referring to Islamabad's demand for concrete assurances from Kabul to curb the militancy emanating from Afghan territory.

However, the Afghan delegation sidestepped the issue altogether, a move that suggests either an unwillingness to confront the problem or an inability to control the numerous militant factions operating within Afghanistan. The Asia Times piece stresses that this lack of commitment to actionable solutions signals a broader governance failure within the Taliban administration.

The Taliban's refusal to address key issues, such as cross-border violence, suggests that their approach to foreign relations is still primarily driven by an ideological rigidity rather than pragmatic diplomacy. As the Asia Times piece suggests, the Taliban's foreign policy is caught in a zero-sum mentality, where any form of compromise is seen as a sign of weakness. This not only undermines regional cooperation but also alienates Afghanistan from essential partners.

Pakistan, which has long been a supporter of Afghanistan — hosting millions of Afghan refugees and offering trade routes and humanitarian aid — has been met with little reciprocation. Instead, as the Asia Times opinion piece notes, Afghanistan's inability or unwillingness to distance itself from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has exacerbated the security situation in Pakistan.

The TTP, a group that shares similar goals to the Afghan Taliban, has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Pakistan, and the Taliban’s failure to curb these groups is seen as a betrayal of Pakistan's trust. The Asia Times argues that this failure is not only a diplomatic setback for Afghanistan but a reckless gamble with its own security and legitimacy.

Regional powers like China and Russia are closely monitoring the Taliban's actions, as their foreign policies towards Afghanistan are conditioned on Kabul's ability to control militancy. The Asia Times highlights China’s concerns, particularly regarding the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a Uighur separatist group that operates in the region.

China has already expressed unease about the Taliban's inability to control such groups, which pose direct threats to Chinese nationals and infrastructure projects, especially in Pakistan. In 2023, China’s foreign ministry called for “greater determination” from the Taliban to crack down on ETIM, labeling it a severe threat to regional security. 

Similarly, Russia, which has engaged with the Taliban through quiet diplomacy, is becoming increasingly frustrated with Afghanistan’s instability. The spread of militancy from Afghan soil into Central Asia undermines Russia's security interests, making it less likely that Moscow will continue to support Afghanistan’s integration into regional forums without a demonstrated ability to curb terrorism. 

In light of these regional dynamics, the opinion piece emphasises that the Taliban had a unique opportunity during the Istanbul talks to reframe Afghanistan’s image and demonstrate its ability to act as a responsible regional actor.

Instead, they chose ideological obstinacy, alienating not only Pakistan but also China and Russia. The piece warns that this refusal to engage constructively will have far-reaching consequences, including the potential for renewed border clashes and further isolation for Afghanistan, which already faces a collapsing economy and a dire humanitarian crisis.

By Sabina Mammadli