Ukrainian incursion in Kursk: A strategic gamble or Putin's trap?

In an article by Newsweek, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is analyzed with a focus on the recent Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region. The piece delves into the contrasting narratives being spun by both sides and the potential long-term implications of the operation for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian state media, including outlets like RIA Novosti and Tsargrad, have portrayed the Ukrainian incursion as a "trap" that will ultimately benefit Putin. These narratives, however, clash with reports from Russian military bloggers and Ukrainian officials, who have noted Ukrainian gains, including the capture of the town of Sudzha. The article highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future of the operation and whether it will indeed backfire on Ukraine or present Putin with new opportunities to strengthen his domestic position.

Experts quoted in the article, such as Michael A. Witt from King's Business School and Vuk Vuksanovic from the London School of Economics, discuss the risks of Ukraine overextending its forces in Kursk and the potential for Putin to exploit the situation domestically. They suggest that while Ukraine's move may demonstrate its continued resolve, it also risks depleting valuable resources and manpower that could be critical in the long term.

Furthermore, the article touches on the broader geopolitical context, including the possibility of a new Russian mobilization and the impact of the U.S. presidential elections on Western support for Ukraine. Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, John J. Sullivan, and military expert Emil Kastehelmi provide additional insights into Russia's historical resilience and the strategic significance of the conflict.

In conclusion, the article presents a complex picture of the ongoing conflict, where both Ukraine and Russia are attempting to gain the upper hand. However, the ultimate outcome remains uncertain, with both risks and opportunities for both sides as the situation continues to evolve.