WTO report lowers global GDP forecast, projects China's expansion into new markets

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) predicts that exports from China to almost all regions of the world, except for North America, are to experience a 4–9% increase, as global trade flows will be redirected following Washington's imposition of a 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods.

This forecast was published in the organisation's Global Trade Outlook report for 2025 and 2026, which warns that the trade relations between superpowers China and the US will cause international trade to suffer “far-reaching consequences”.

Overall trade volumes between the rivals were expected to plunge by 81–91% due to the steep reciprocal tariffs announced by leaders in both countries. The increase in Chinese exports is forecasted to happen from the trade redirection, which is expected to certainly occur worldwide, seeing as most countries have been slapped with increased rates by Washington.

“The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty,” the WTO predicts, changing its previous global GDP growth forecast of 2.8% for 2025 to a weaker 2.2%. The Geneva-based institution's outlook further states that it had previously expected goods trade to rise by 2.7% this year but had to adjust that to a 0.2% decline as a result of Washington’s trade policy.

WTO experts also anticipate a sharp decline in US imports from China in sectors such as textiles, clothing, and electrical engineering, which could therefore create opportunities for other manufacturing countries to increase their exports to the US market.

The WTO, traditionally a key player in shaping global trade rules and negotiations, has seen its influence wane amid slowing globalisation and unfairly perceived trade deals in recent years. China has called on the WTO to investigate the effects of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In a statement, Beijing warned that reciprocal tariffs are counterproductive and will ultimately harm the US itself.

By Nazrin Sadigova