What to expect from Biden-Xi Jinping meeting? Expecting modest deliverables

On November 15, 2023, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden swept into San Francisco as the two leaders made their final preparations for their first engagement in a year at a historic estate outside of the city.

A lot has transpired since U.S. President Joe Biden last met in person with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) Summit in Bali almost a year ago. The two leaders now find themselves in a rather similar position ahead of an expected meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit.

In the face of complex international landscapes and at a time when China-U.S. relations are at a critical crossroads, Xi's trip to the United States has drawn worldwide attention. This year's APEC meetings are themed "Creating a Resilient and Sustainable Future for All."

APEC faces downside risks from inflation, debt, climate change, geoeconomic fragmentation, trade protectionism and geopolitical issues despite upside opportunities from tourism rebound, increased consumption and targeted fiscal support.

The keyword during the G20 summit in Bali was "stability." The aim for both sides was to put an end to the deterioration in relations and improve communication between Beijing and Washington. The last meeting of leaders led to a rapprochement, with both sides pledging to work more closely together.

However, that pledge was quickly tested. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s scheduled follow-up trip to Beijing in February was thwarted after a Chinese spy balloon drifted over the U.S.

Nevertheless, amid global security cataclysms and economic stagnation, the two superpowers seemingly decided to renew talks on specific issues, including the Israel-Hamas war to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea’s ties with Russia, Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, human rights, fentanyl, artificial intelligence, as well as “fair” trade and economic relations. The mentioned issues remain the most challenging as they trigger global financial and security crises with no real solution plan in sight.

In 2024, Biden will face a contentious presidential election in which China will likely feature prominently as a campaign issue. This gives the Biden administration even less appetite for showing any softening of its stance on China, whether it comes to further controls on the sale of U.S. tech products, support for Taiwan, responsible use of Artificial Intelligence, or criticism of China’s human rights record.

Nonetheless, both sides may make modest goodwill gestures to ease talks, according to two other people briefed on the discussions. But profound progress will be hard. Both countries increasingly regard themselves as locked in a direct competition to secure a military edge, corner the 21st-century economy, and win the affections of second-tier countries.

Indeed, one of the primary topics of today’s negotiations will be devoted to the new regulations for using A.I. in the military. In early 2023, the US announced its participation, joining 45 governments, in the launching of the implementation of the Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy. This initiative contains ten concrete measures to guide the responsible military use of the full range of A.I. applications.

As such, both leaders are expected to agree to limit the use of A.I. in nuclear weapons. Consequently, restoring military-to-military communication will be a step forward from the U.S. perspective, and the U.S. hopes to continue the series of high-level meetings restarted over the summer.

Yet the fact that the bar is this low is telling. American officials say there is no plan for the two leaders to issue a joint statement of any kind. Instead, each government will provide its account of the discussions. Moreover, in exchange for negotiations and agreements on A.I., China would probably seek the United States “does not seek a new Cold War,” as Xi earlier has made it clear that he considers the U.S. to be deep into Cold War-like behaviour.

China does not hide its concerns regarding the Biden administration’s efforts to build up a patchwork of old allies and new partners in the Indo-Pacific — with new accords from the Philippines to Papua New Guinea — to counter China’s ambitions.

Conversely, the leaders' meeting came in light of China's economic slowdown, which bought some time for the U.S. to exert more pressure on Beijing. Considering the economic difficulties, Xi Jinping may demonstrate some constraint in challenging the U.S. due to the risks of being sanctioned.