Will Georgian president grant a pardon to her predecessor? Caliber.Az reporting from Tbilisi

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili may consider pardoning former President Mikheil Saakashvili, according to Shalva Papuashvili, Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, as reported by the Georgian Times. "Thanks to Mikheil Saakashvili, Salome Zourabichvili remained in her position. The United National Movement proposed that Salome Zourabichvili issue a pardon when they deem it necessary, once the situation becomes clearer," he said. Papuashvili further remarked that if Zourabichvili could pardon Nika Gvaramia, leader of the Ahali party, who was sentenced to 3.5 years in prison in 2022 and pardoned by the president in 2023, then pardoning Saakashvili should not be difficult.

Several criminal cases have been initiated against Saakashvili in the country, two of which have resulted in a total sentence of nine years in prison. The politician was detained in Georgia on October 1, 2021. Initially, he was held in a prison in the city of Rustavi, but in May 2022, he was transferred to a clinic in Tbilisi for medical examination. Doctors diagnosed him with a spinal injury, and the former Georgian president required surgery. He served as the country's president from 2004 to 2013.

Under what conditions might Salome Zourabichvili consider pardoning Saakashvili? What would need to happen for this to occur? So far, despite her sympathy for the opposition's concerns, she has consistently avoided even discussing the possibility of freeing the former president. Could this be connected to their personal relationship? After all, they parted ways when Saakashvili dismissed Zourabichvili, removing her from her position as Georgia’s foreign minister.

Georgian political commentators shared their thoughts on these questions with Caliber.Az.

The director of the School of International Relations at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs, Professor Tornike Sharashenidze, believes that pardoning the former president is completely unrealistic.

"First of all, the president is opposed to the polarization of Georgian society, and such a decision would significantly increase polarization. Secondly, Zourabichvili is trying to maintain a neutral stance, opposing both the current government and Saakashvili's United National Movement party. Additionally, it's important to note that a pardon would not change anything. It's not that simple to release Saakashvili, as several cases have been brought against him, and the hearings are still ongoing," Sharashenidze noted.

This view is generally shared by Doctor of Political Science and Professor Vakhtang Maisaia.

"I don't believe in the possibility of such an action, even at the level of rumors. Salome Zourabichvili will never pardon Saakashvili—she once stated that this is a matter of principle for her. And it's understandable because they are sworn enemies," the analyst stated.

Moreover, there are two additional points to consider, he added.

"First, such a move could seriously damage her reputation, casting doubt on it—even among the part of society that once elected her president. Second, the Strasbourg Court (European Court of Human Rights) has ruled that Saakashvili is rightly held accountable under two charges and is lawfully imprisoned. In other words, from a legal standpoint, there is no basis for his release. This is also a fact. The Strasbourg Court denied Saakashvili's lawyers' appeal against the sentences handed down to him. Based on this, it can be concluded that the former president will not be released through a pardon.

But unless Bidzina Ivanishvili and the ruling party 'Georgian Dream' decide to pardon Saakashvili themselves—which is even a more likely scenario than the president doing so," the professor believes.

What’s most interesting, he says, is that even if Salome Zourabichvili were to hypothetically pardon Mikheil Saakashvili, it would not save him.

"Because there are still two other criminal cases pending against him. There is an ongoing trial regarding his illegal crossing of the state border, which is considered a serious crime punishable by 7 to 9 years in prison," concluded Dr. Maisaia.