Will Lavrov’s recent visit to Baku revitalize Karabakh peace process? The dust of the war in South Caucasus has not settled down

On February 28, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov landed in Baku to attend the next round of meetings with Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev and foreign minister Jeyhun Bayramov amid the renewed war of words between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Karabakh peace process. While the stalemate in the negotiation process outraged official Baku, Armenia is in no rush to contribute to the final peace treaty citing concerns over national interests and sovereignty.

Lavrov’s visit came at a time when the bilateral relations between Yerevan and Moscow are shaky in light of the deployment of the European Union’s (EU) new civilian mission of 100, including French gendarmeries. Unlike the EU’s previous short-term monitoring mission on Armenian soil, the new two-year-long civilian mission was harshly criticized by Russia, with Lavrov accusing Brussels “of attempting to abuse the Karabakh peace process.” Hence, Lavrov's visit to Baku and statements made during the joint press conference were a reaction to Yerevan's steady rapprochement with the West.

Shortly before Sergei Lavrov’s visit, Azerbaijan boosted pressure on the de-facto separatist regime on Karabakh to remove Ruben Vardanyan, a Russian oligarch of Armenian descent, from the position of the so-called “state minister”. As a result, Vardanyan was removed from the post on February 23.

Since Vardanyan’s appearance in Karabakh in September 2022, Baku accused him of being "exported from Moscow" to Karabakh with a particular agenda, to postpone the peace process and add more fuel to the tense relations. Indeed, during his brief time as a "state minister", Ruben Vardanyan's bellicose rhetoric toward Azerbaijan, such as "living with Azerbaijanis, but not under Azerbaijan,” triggered harsh sentiments in Baku.

One thing is certain that Vardanyan’s departure removes a significant irritant in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, and many expect negotiations between the sides to gain pace now that he is out of the picture. Azerbaijan’s pressure on the de-facto regime in Khankendi was also a signal to Moscow of the growing discontent of official Baku, as the dispatch of Vardanyan overshadowed the mediation efforts of Moscow to Karabakh.

Therefore, Lavrov’s trip to Baku was necessary to alleviate the discontent and bring back the peace process to the Russian sphere of influence. During the joint press conference, Lavrov underlined that Russia's motto toward regional partners is "do no harm" and "respect sovereign choices." However, with the current anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia in light of the Armenian parliament’s speaker Alen Simonyan’s remarks that “Russia is not able to resolve the current crisis despite being a strategic ally,” it will be hard for Moscow to reach any agreement at this stage.

As such, Lavrov highlighted that the EU's new mission in Armenia raises more serious questions, such as its mandate, functions, and term. In fact, Russia's diplomatic manoeuvring space in the South Caucasus is shrinking steadily due to its depletion of resources in light of the Ukraine war and international sanctions, which means that Moscow has yet to offer to Baku and Yerevan. In this regard, Moscow’s role as a key mediator in the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process looks vague.

Moreover, contrary to the long-term tradition of the regional tour, this time, Sergei Lavrov did not visit Yerevan after his Baku trip but returned to Moscow, which is another sign of diplomatic rifts with Yerevan. Nevertheless, it is most likely that Russia will soon arrange another meeting of leaders in Moscow, as the latest scheduled meeting in Moscow in December 2022 was postponed due to Armenia’s refusal to attend in light of Azerbaijani civilian protests on the Lachin road.

If unsuccessful again, Moscow risks being ruled out from the peace process by the EU, which has more prospects to mediate the peace negotiations and offer solution plans. For example, Baku strictly opposes the Russia-proposed peace project, as it contains the "status of Karabakh" point, which is unacceptable for Azerbaijan. Therefore, Russia would need to review the proposed peace document to ensure Azerbaijan can proceed with the process.

Otherwise, the EU's and the US's mediation and terms perfectly suit Azerbaijani interests. In this vein, Baku will give a new chance to the Moscow-led peace initiative in an attempt to reach a consensus soon, at least on several issues, such as border demarcation/delimitation and unblocking of regional communication lines. Even so, Baku and Yerevan still have a way to go before reaching an explicit consensus on peace and complete diplomatic normalization.