With Azerbaijan in full control of territories, Yerevan must meet Baku halfway to sign peace deal Caliber.Az analyst Amashov tells Polish TVP

Political analyst Orkhan Amashov of the Caliber.Az news agency, who was in a week-long visit in Poland to attend the Warsaw Human Dimension Conference, granted an interview to Polish TVP World channel to update viewers on the latest developments in Garabagh, the Azerbaijani government’s determined steps to restore its sovereignty, reintegrate ethnic Armenians of Garabagh to the fabric of society once they adopt Azerbaijani citizenship, including France’s toxic role to this effect.

Q: So, we have heard a lot, of course, worldwide attention is generally focused on the Armenian plight of the people fleeing Nagorno-Garabagh. However, we also know that Nagorno-Garabagh is an integral part of Azerbaijan. Therefore, to kind of clear some of the noise surrounding this issue, we've heard over 100,000 people have left Nagorno-Garabagh in the last few days. Do you think that this is a mistake that so many people are completely leaving the territory of Nagorno-Garabagh? And if so, then why?

A: Well, legally speaking, there is no administrative division called Nagorno-Garabagh inside Azerbaijan. There is a Garabagh Economic Region with the city of Khankendi, and Armenian residents there. So, what happened there? So, from 19th to 20th of September, Azerbaijan conducted counter-terrorism measures on the ground in Garabagh on its sovereign territory. And the reason for that was that there was a gray zone wherein the separatist entity self-styled as NKR, together with illegal Armenian armed formations were present.

And that element was key in terms of hindering the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And Azerbaijan needed to restore its de facto sovereignty over Garabagh. And what happened afterwards? Armenian side, in particular, I think Diaspora played an important role in this process. They encouraged and actively advocated those Armenian residents of Garabagh should leave Garabagh because they can't live there, it's not safe for them.

And it's very interesting that those people who advocated for mass exodus of Garabagh Armenians are currently claiming that those evacuations amount to ethnic cleansing. Azerbaijan has never encouraged them to leave. Azerbaijan believes that we have to maintain Armenian population of Garabagh because Baku views them as Azerbaijani citizens. So, the point now is that we understand after the counter-terrorism measures, some people might've felt very unsafe. There were lots of disinformation, to which you referred and they left. But now, there's an opportunity. Azerbaijan is reintegrating the infrastructure into its rest of Azerbaijan and the humanitarian access is guaranteed through the Lachin road, Aghdam Khankandi road, and other alternative roads.

A United Nations mission was on the ground confirming that people were not forced to leave Garabagh region of Azerbaijan and there was no damage to the civilian infrastructure. Now they could come back and there is a reintegration programme. They could apply for the Azerbaijani citizenship. Moreover, once they are Azerbaijani citizens, they will be able to enjoy the same privileges and rights as other Azerbaijani citizens. In addition, once they become Azerbaijani citizens, I think that that will be very good for the future reconciliation of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Because fundamentally now, after the de facto restoration of Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Garabagh, we have this opportunity to sign a long-awaited peace deal because that gray zone to which I referred was the key obstacle.

Q: Right, now we have heard before, I believe President Aliyev referred to the matter saying that people should stay in place. They should take Azerbaijani citizenship and they will be allowed freedom of religion. They will be allowed to stay in their homes and remain as part of fabric of society.

A: President Aliyev mentioned a couple of times, when he was giving interview to Euronews back in July, I believe, and then he was addressing nation after counter-terrorism measures that all of Armenian residents of the Garabagh region of Azerbaijan, they will have economic, social, religious, cultural, municipal rights. So, there will be some kind of self-governance within the shape of municipality and they will have freedom of movement across Azerbaijan. They should not just stay in the Garabagh region of Azerbaijan and that will provide for them absolutely fantastic opportunities. Also, there is another issue, of course, you know, that during the first Garabagh war, there was actually ethnic cleansing when during the first Garabagh war, Azerbaijanis were expelled forcefully from the territory of Armenia. And there is also another issue of their dignified and voluntary return. That also should be arranged between Azerbaijan and Armenia as a part of interstate arrangement. And I think that once Armenians are integrated into Azerbaijani society, and those Azerbaijanis, who were expelled from Armenia during the first Garabagh war, go back to Armenia, become Armenian citizens, that will provide a solid foundation for these two countries, not just, you know, peacefully co-exist, but also work together for the greater good of the region for that regional integration.

Q: And meanwhile, Russia has been trying to keep a lid on this for the last three decades. What do you think Russia's role in the region will be? Do you think that it is in Azerbaijan's interest? Is it in Armenia's interest to get rid of these so-called Russian peacekeepers from the region and begin reconciliation between the two countries?

A: As you know, technically, from the point of view of international law, they are not peacekeepers, because we know what the definition of peacekeepers is. I think they are bound to retrench, in particular after what happened in September. As you know, on the 28th of September, that separatist entity issued a decree on its self-dissolution and according to that decree, they will cease to exist by the 1st of January, 2024.

So, it will happen to the Russian peacekeepers. I think that means, and from the signals that I am receiving, I think everything is very clear. They're gonna curb their presence, or eventually they're gonna pull out. This is absolutely inevitable and I think Russian President Vladimir Putin said something to that effect very recently. All of the things together, so Azerbaijani-Armenian peace deal also means that the normalization between Türkiye and Armenia will also reach its logical conclusion. So, Armenia will be far more independent. Good relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, and Russian influence will be curbed and I think it will be good for the region and for Armenia in particular.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, Azerbaijan, all of those operations and counter-terrorism measures were strictly within the sovereign borders of Azerbaijan. Garabagh is Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has never attacked the Armenia proper, the Republic of Armenia. And, you know, Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is absolutely vital, in the same way as Ukraine's territorial integrity. And what Azerbaijan did on the 20th of September is a very good example for all post-Soviet nations, because Azerbaijan proved that the concept of eternal conflict is not tenable. It is possible to sort it out. Reconciliation is not unthinkable and in the same way, Ukraine's territorial integrity must be protected and guarded. Same principle should apply to Azerbaijan. It is very disheartening to hear these messages coming from the European Parliament, because when it comes to European Union as an institution, there are some positive elements there. I think that some of the efforts of Charles Michel, EU Council President, have been absolutely commendable, because first time back in October 2022, when Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed on the mutual recognition of territorial integrity and sovereignty, that was through the EU initiative together with Washington. That was agreed in Prague. And again, back in May of 2023, when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that we are ready to recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity across 80.6 thousand square kilometers, that was also through Charles Michel's efforts. So, EU's efforts are commendable and Azerbaijan believes that that trilateral format in telling Azerbaijan, Armenia and EU should work, there's a great potential there.

But Azerbaijan does not want that trilateral format to be changed with addition of the French involvement, because frankly, France is very supportive of Armenia. Their bilateral relations are up to them. It is a personal, you know, it's two countries and their relations. But when it comes to Azerbaijani-Armenian peace process, the French influence is perceived to be incredibly, incredibly toxic. And the reason why President Aliyev decided not to take part at the Granada meeting, which took place on the 5th of October, there were a couple of reasons there. One of them was that Azerbaijan wanted to see Türkiye, and France and Germany were against it and plus statements coming from France, from President Emmanuel Macron, perceived to be very counterproductive by Azerbaijan. But when it comes to trilateral format, mediated by Charles Michel, that format is very important, and that should be encouraged.

Q: So, concerning the two presidents, Presidents Aliyev and Pashinyan, do you think that it is going to require their direct involvement to engage in conversations, in dialogue, to be able to implement, at least begin to implement some type of solution?

A: That's a very good question, Don, because back in 2022, April, when we had the second Brussels summit, trilateral format, President Aliyev after that said that this could be described as an inception of a bilateral format. So, really the mediator's role is to facilitate process, not to impose conditions on the parties and direct talk between Baku and Yerevan is absolutely indispensable. President Aliyev mentioned a couple of times that we as Azerbaijan believe that our problems should be sorted out within the framework of this region. I'm a strong believer in direct talk because direct talks usually useful because when there are external influences, each single party has got their own agenda and they try to influence the process in a way which could militate against the interests of the parties.

So, if there is a direct talk between President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan, they're both reasonable people and persons, individuals, and Nikol Pashinyan is capable of acting very reasonably under duress sometimes because what he did on the 20th of September, he did two fundamental things.

First of all, when Azerbaijan started these counter-terrorism measures, he said, it is not our affair, it is Azerbaijan's affair, we're not going to interfere. That was absolutely key because had Armenia interfered, that escalation would have moved to the conditional state border and would have been totally out of control. And he didn't do that. For that, he deserves credit. And number two, after the measures taken by Azerbaijan, he was very reasonable. He said that we do not believe that there is a direct threat to the local Armenian population. But his words, sadly, were not seconded by his foreign minister when he was addressing the United Nations. I don't think it's a problem of coordination because they belong to the same government, prime minister and foreign minister, but quite often we see different narratives coming from the prime minister, Pashinyan and Ararat Mirzoyan, foreign minister. I think the Armenian foreign office, foreign ministry, will need to be changed in the long-run because I feel that Pashinyan and Mirzoyan are not acting in line and quite often Pashinyan's efforts have been damaged by Ararat Mirzoyan.