"Yerevan expects Moscow's overt criticism of Baku" Caliber.Az interview with political analyst Mikhail Neyzhmakov

"Nikol Pashinyan's tepid statements on CSTO activities may be linked to the Prime Minister's desire to redirect the protest mood in the country towards external forces," Russian political analyst Mikhail Neyzhmakov, senior analyst at the Political and Economic Communications Agency, suggested while commenting to Caliber.Az the interview of the Armenian Prime Minister to the Armenian TV channel.

The political scientist argues that during the periods of tension between Baku and Yerevan, Armenia's criticism of the CSTO also intensifies.

"A similar thing could be observed in 2021-2022, particularly in the spring of 2021 in the conditions of tension around the Black Lake (Garagyol - ed.). That is, in this case, Nikol Pashinyan and members of his team (remember, for example, the criticism of the CSTO by Alain Simonyan, speaker of the Armenian National Assembly) seek to intercept the agenda, which can be used against them by some of their opponents. Finally, we should also take into account the fact that a CSTO summit is to be held in Yerevan in November 2022. Perhaps, the Armenian government expects that in the run-up to that event, Yerevan's negotiating positions may strengthen, if not on strategic issues, then on more situational ones," Neyzhmakov said.

At the same time, according to the Russian expert, Armenia is unlikely to withdraw from the CSTO in the near future, if only because the US has not yet given it enough specific commitments to support the country's security.

"The promises by Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, to listen to Yerevan's views on its defence needs have so far been very vague. But in order to strengthen his own positions for dialogue with Moscow, Nikol Pashinyan will endeavor to use the factor of such high-ranking US official's visit to Yerevan," he added.

At the same time, Neyzhmakov noted that the remark of the Armenian Prime Minister about the "sincerity of the publicly articulated positions" of the Russian authorities was in fact expressed very cautiously.

"It was not without reason that it was accompanied by a broadly positive assessment of the activities of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk. This could be a hint at Yerevan's anticipation of overt criticism of Baku by Russian officials. This remark can also be seen in the context of the absentee debate between representatives of Nikol Pashinyan's team and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova over assessments of the CSTO's activities or the deployment of international observers on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Finally, although Nikol Pashinyan appealed in this case to the Russian authorities, perhaps this was his reaction to the use of the term "Zangazur corridor" by many Russian media, which is unacceptable for Yerevan.

In any case, it was Pashinyan's desire to parry criticism from his opponents inside Armenia, who had repeatedly accused the government of making concessions in favour of Baku (including the unblocking of communications in the region) and not actively defending Yerevan's interests," our interlocutor concluded.