Yerevan's uneasy position in the West-Russia divide Caught in the middle

Yerevan's move to shift its orientation towards the West, exemplified by the withdrawal of Russian border guards from Zvartnots International Airport, did not go unnoticed by the United States.

According to Armenian media, Vedant Patel, the Principal Deputy Spokesperson for the US Department of State, called this development a long-awaited step during a briefing. He noted that this issue had been commented on a year ago.

"Of course, it was a concerning development back then. I don't have any additional details on this development. But certainly, it would be a long-awaited step in the right direction," said Patel.

To recap, on July 31, Russian border guards officially left the territory of Zvartnots International Airport, where they had been stationed for the past 32 years under the agreement on the status of Russian border troops in Armenia, concluded in Yerevan on September 30, 1992.

The withdrawal of Russian border guards from Yerevan's airport took place amid a significant deterioration in Armenia-Russia relations. These relations have strained as Armenia has actively deepened its ties with the West, especially after Yerevan announced this February that it was "freezing" its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

It is clear that the US and the EU are using Yerevan as a tool to push Russia out of the South Caucasus to advance their interests in the region. Indeed, Armenia's flirtation with the West creates conditions for reducing Russia's influence in the "land of stones."

However, it would be premature to speak of Armenia completely eliminating Russia's military presence. Firstly, because Moscow still has significant leverage in the form of the 102nd military base in Gyumri, which Yerevan will find quite difficult to dismantle.

As is well known, this issue is regulated by a separate interstate agreement, and the deployment term of the base will not expire until 2044. This is also understood in Yerevan, so it is not surprising that Armenian authorities periodically state that the issue of withdrawing the Russian military base from the country is not on the agenda. Accordingly, significant reduction of Russia's military presence in Armenia is not expected, at least in the medium term.

Secondly, theoretically, Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO is possible, but the fact that the country's leadership is not rushing to take concrete steps in this regard, limiting itself to merely "freezing" participation and refusing to pay the membership fee, indicates that this issue will also remain unresolved in Yerevan's agenda for an indefinite period.

It should also be noted that the Armenian leadership is fundamentally incapable of making any significant, fateful decisions due to a lack of political will, as evidenced by the prolonged process of settling relations with Azerbaijan and the undermining of Baku's peace agenda.

In other words, the most Armenia is capable of is being someone's outpost. However, at this stage, Armenia's leadership is at a crossroads, trying on one hand to appease potential Western patrons through anti-Russian gestures, while simultaneously delaying a complete break with Russia, attempting to balance between both sides.

Moscow is obviously dissatisfied with this duplicitous game by the Armenian side, yet diplomatically places most of the blame on the West. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly stated that the reason for Armenia's sharp criticisms towards the CSTO and Russia is due to Western pressure.

In this context, it's also relevant to recall the recent remarks by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin in an interview with the Russian "Izvestia," where he stated, "it is the West that is trying with all its might to draw Yerevan into a confrontation with Russia and into Western schemes of bloc opposition, without considering the security interests of Armenia itself and the interests of the Armenian people."

Thus, Moscow hints that it is not ready to abandon its positions in Armenia and implies that it might overlook Armenia's indiscretions if Yerevan reconsiders its relations with the West.

In this regard, it's relevant to note that on July 24, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia respects Armenia's cooperation with the European Union (EU) but hopes that Yerevan will not follow Ukraine's path in its relations with Moscow. According to him, the Russian side is committed to continuing warm bilateral relations with Yerevan.

On July 22, the European Union decided to allocate €10 million in funding to support Armenia's armed forces. Interestingly, while Moscow shows a certain level of tolerance towards Armenia's cooperation with the EU, Washington openly encourages Armenia to sever its ties with Russia.

On July 30, during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, James O'Brien, the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, clearly stated that the US is trying to create conditions for Armenia to break off its relations with Russia. However, O'Brien also noted that Armenia is currently almost entirely dependent on Moscow in economic and energy matters.

"Armenia is almost entirely dependent on Russia in economic and energy terms, and we need to achieve diversification," he said, indicating that this is why the decision was made to create a new platform to assist Armenia.

Thus, it can be concluded that Russia will continue to keep Armenia within its sphere of influence by using political and financial and economic pressure on Yerevan. In turn, the West will keep pulling Armenia towards its side, promising financial gains. Armenia, playing the role of the rope being tugged from both sides, is clearly in an unenviable position. After all, what is there to envy about a country whose actions could turn it into a South Caucasian Syria?