CSTO or NATO - another option not better than first one Armenian PM's antics

Blackmail is one of the most heinous means of committing other crimes. Moreover, this category is disliked in a civilised society, in the criminal community, as well as among prisoners. The blackmailer always thinks that the consequences are more severe and unacceptable than the fulfillment of his demands, and then the blackmailed side can implement these demands perceiving this as a lesser evil or nuisance. As the Russian leader has said, prostitutes, who have something that can compromise their careless clients and that these clients are ready to buy for any money or render a specific service, can also blackmail. However, there is a category of blackmailers who, by chance, hold the highest governmental posts.

The last category is a special one, using a political game proceeding from the guilt of the victim of blackmail as a tool of influence. The people from this group are prone to hysteria and exaggeration of their importance. They demand constant attention and protection from the victims of blackmail, and in case of any attempt to refuse, they threaten to commit suicide and speculate on their helplessness or importance.

If it would be children, it is ok, but the matter rests in a person holding the highest state position, who considers himself the centre of the universe and requires an appropriate attitude from others, primarily, from allies and partners.

Dear readers, having read these lines, you probably guessed who we are talking about. Indeed, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is the blackmailer in the highest state post. He has given an extensive interview to the Public Television Company of Armenia.

My Caliber.Az colleagues will still mention the theses voiced by Pashinyan in the recent interview. I would like to elaborate on blackmail. One can regard Pashinyan's play on words regarding the CSTO and Armenia's membership in it as pressure and blackmail.

Although initially Armenian public community hastened to report that Pashinyan announced the deadline for Armenia to withdraw from the CSTO - February 2023, apparently knowing well about the true attitude of the Soros team towards this military-political bloc, the whispers and hints of the new overseas patrons of the Armenian government, however, timid Pashinyan did not dare to say this.

Although, as people say, another option is not better than the first one, and the Armenian prime minister blackmailed CSTO in his speech. Let’s see.

When a journalist asked whether Armenia is now preparing to withdraw from the CSTO, Pashinyan replied that during the recent meetings with a number of partners in the CSTO, he noticed that the CSTO also stressed that certain public sentiments in Armenia are changing. Even during the conversation, the statement was made that the CSTO fears that it will lose Armenia.

“However, I said that there is an opposite fear in Armenia that Armenia will lose the CSTO. My reaction was that there are concerns that the CSTO will leave Armenia. Actually, it's not a pun at all. This is very serious content, because, after all, let's not forget that I am the CSTO chairman. This is a very difficult situation. I think that I have formulated the whole problem by these formulations, which at first glance seem like a simple play on words,” he said.

“We expect a clear political assessment, a clear political assessment of the situation. I delivered speeches many times within the CSTO at the working level, but now, I think, it is time to say this publicly. Look, for example, when we previously discussed Armenia's security issues with our CSTO partners, because the CSTO is the number one institutional tool for Armenia's security, we were assured that the Armenian border is a red line for the CSTO,” Pashinyan said.

When the well-known events occurred last year, we, of course, appealed to the CSTO and received a very strange answer that, you know, the border has not been demarcated and has not been delimited. There is such a question. Where does the same red line pass? Then we clearly formulated the need for a clear answer to this question because it is important not only for Armenia but also for the CSTO, he added.

When people say whether Armenia should withdraw from the CSTO or not, this is a wrong question. The question is as follows. Will CSTO leave Armenia or not or will the CSTO fix its area of responsibility? What is the red line in Armenia?” Pashinyan said.

What is the border between states? The state border is a line and a vertical surface passing along this line, defining the limits of the state territory (land, water, subsoil, and airspace) of a state, that is, the spatial limit of the state sovereignty.

In this case, we will talk about specific borders between the states in the South Caucasus, rather than about those, conditional borders, which have long been erased in the EU. Proceeding from Pashinyan's logic, if there is still a border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, then where are the border lines, all these posts, communications, and border control?

Following the 44-day second Karabakh war, the Azerbaijani soldier reached the borders of Azerbaijan of the Soviet period but did not notice any border lines and fortifications there. Why? The Armenian army invaded deep into the Azerbaijani territory in 1991-1994, and held these territories under occupation for 30 years, believing that this would always be so.

For almost two years, Azerbaijan has been urging Yerevan to move from words to deeds and delimit and demarcate the border, and then conclude a peace treaty. This is the cornerstone of five principles put forward by the Azerbaijani side and, in words, accepted by the Armenian side. Let me remind them again:

- mutual recognition of sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of international borders, and political independence of each other;

- mutual confirmation of the absence of territorial claims of states against each other and a legal obligation not to make such claims in the future;

- refrain from threatening each other's security in interstate relations, from using threats and force against political independence and territorial integrity, as well as from other circumstances incompatible with the purposes of the UN Charter;

- delimitation and demarcation of the state border, the establishment of diplomatic relations;

- the opening of transportation routes, the establishment of other relevant communications, and cooperation in other spheres of mutual interest.

Only after the delimitation and demarcation of the state border, when both sides, figuratively speaking, will know that here, for example, the territory of Azerbaijan, and after a metre - the territory of Armenia, and if the Azerbaijani army crosses this meter, it will be possible to talk about aggression, yell about it to the whole world and call for the CSTO for help.

The CSTO partners repeatedly pointed out Pashinyan to this issue. The position of the allies is as follows: “Mr. Pashinyan, we respect the territorial integrity of Armenia, we are ready to defend it within the organisation. This is really a red line for us. As for the Armenian-Azerbaijani border area, can the territory be considered an Armenian one if the border is not demarcated and delimited? First, you should resolve this issue with Azerbaijan.”

However, Yerevan, accustomed to considering Azerbaijani territories as its own over 30 years of occupation, is internally not ready to admit that the area of the generally recognised territory of Armenia is just over 29,000 square kilometres. The CSTO should know exactly what to protect. Pashinyan doesn’t care about anything. If I am a CSTO member, then Armenia’s wishlist is above international law and the territorial integrity of neighboring states, and all other CSTO member states are simply obliged to be on my side.

This approach doesn't work anymore. As time has shown, before the second Karabakh war, during two years after it, during the numerous provocations of the Armenian side, the CSTO chose not to interfere simply because it does not see where its responsibility begins in the Armenian-Azerbaijani border area.
The nervousness of Yerevan and the open blackmail that Pashinyan resorted to recently, arguing whether CSTO will lose Armenia, or Armenia will lose CSTO, hinting that if the Armenian side does not receive assistance from the "Putin" bloc, then he may ask for it from the NATO.

Another option is not better than the first one. Blackmail here is unlikely to be useful. Who did Pashinyan essentially try to blackmail - Russia? Russia itself today blackmails the whole world with nuclear weapons. Pashinyan should remember that, according to statistics, the chances of success for blackmailers are always minimal. After all, it is economically cheaper to eliminate them than to pay.

However, the prime minister still has the opportunity not to turn into a fleeing or dead prime minister by responsibly approaching Baku’s proposal on the issue of delimiting the border and reviewing Azerbaijan’s maps. It is possible to review the maps of the Soviet period. Otherwise, the Azerbaijani soldier will have to draw the borders on the maps of the 19th century.