South Caucasus: US, Russia fight fiercely over Baku-Yerevan peace mediation Review by Caliber.Az

The messages from Moscow, Brussels and Washington periodically voiced around the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations about their readiness to provide Baku and Yerevan with a platform for negotiations while reminding the conflicting sides of their own vision of a solution to the problem clearly confirm that the struggle for influence in the South Caucasus is in full swing. There is no doubt that the mediators have entered into fierce competition among themselves, which is especially evident in the actions of the United States and Russia.

This is also evidenced by recent remarks by US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, who stated that “despite any comments from other countries that are not parties to this issue, a peace agreement (between Armenia and Azerbaijan) remains within reach".

Moreover, the US diplomatic spokesman promised, "We will continue to work with the parties to make this happen. We have engaged directly with these countries”. And to be sure, he noted that last week State Department Special Representative Louis Bono "visited the region and engaged directly with the parties”.

In other words, the United States continues to insist on signing a peace agreement as soon as possible through direct dialogue between Baku and Yerevan and on the American negotiating track. The presence of Russia, a long-standing mediator, is completely ignored. As Miller, or rather, the State Department, unexpectedly stated, "the US does not want to talk about Russia when it comes to Armenia and Azerbaijan", but assumes that "Türkiye can play a productive role in the Azerbaijani-Armenian settlement".

"...We do really believe that Türkiye can play a productive role in this," Miller said, commenting at a briefing on a reporter's question about statements from Russian officials about the undesirability of signing any peace agreement without Moscow's knowledge.

To recall, Denis Gonchar, Director of the Fourth Department of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, voiced a strange and almost negative forecast of the prospects for peace between Baku and Yerevan last week. "The attempt to hastily conclude a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia to the detriment of quality and proper preparation will turn into new conflicts in the future," Gonchar said, adding that "priority should be given not to speed, but to qualitative preparation of balanced and mutually acceptable solutions."

Understandably, the reason for Moscow's serious concern was Washington's special recent activity in the South Caucasus region. Moscow now has nothing left but to remind everyone more often that Russia is the main moderator of the negotiations and, accordingly, the main and comprehensive document on peace should be signed on the terms of the Trilateral Statement of November 2020 and exclusively on the Russian platform.

Of course, Moscow's warning signal was heard not only in Baku and Yerevan but also in Washington and Brussels. Washington did not delay its response and added the Turkish factor to the negotiation agenda to spite Moscow.

This fresh nuance in the American position can be linked to several points. First, Türkiye is an important strategic ally of the United States, which is periodically emphasized at the highest level in both Ankara and Washington. In April 2023, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, at a press conference following a meeting with Swedish Defense Minister Pal Johnson in Stockholm, deemed it necessary to note that "Türkiye is an important NATO ally. 

Secondly, the US considers Türkiye's possible mediation to be effective also because it is Ankara that is much more interested in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement than Russia and is making maximum efforts for this purpose.

Thirdly, the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations automatically implies the full restoration of Armenian-Turkish relations, which is welcomed not only in Ankara but also in Washington.

But Moscow could perhaps be satisfied with a scenario in which the United States would refuse to mediate, ceding this mission to Ankara. But it is unlikely that the US plans such a scenario. The White House is likely to insist that the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement not be put off. Its task is to rub Russia's nose in it and sign peace on its own territory.

As for Ankara, it is undoubtedly ready to provide its platform for negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but in this case, the stumbling block may be the position of Yerevan, which does not really intend to settle relations with either Baku or Ankara. Otherwise, the Armenian authorities would not have tried time after time to derail Baku's peace agenda already in the post-war period, when the Karabakh problem turned out to be exhausted. Therefore, the option of Türkiye's mediation in the negotiations is bound to run up against the Armenian factor, or, more precisely, Armenia's unwillingness to move towards peace.

Meanwhile, Türkiye is the only country that is indeed interested in stability and security in the South Caucasus, while all other external players - Russia, the US and the EU - are hatching their own goals and plans. Moreover, no matter how paradoxical it may seem, at this stage of the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, Moscow is the most afraid of a speedy conclusion of peace between Baku and Yerevan, especially if it is realised on the American platform.

It is not ruled out that Moscow's anxiety is also connected with the anti-Russian attitude of the leadership of Yerevan, which was followed by a tough reaction from the Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova. The Russian diplomat regarded the Armenian prime minister's unpleasant wordings for Moscow as "absolutely incomprehensible reasoning" and advised him "not to juggle with words, as it does not lead to good".

Moscow has warned Yerevan that no matter how much Armenia squints at the West, the tools of influence on it are still in Russia's hands, and Yerevan will have to reckon with that, whether it wants to or not.

The conclusion that emerges from all this is that in the foreseeable future, the political and ideological confrontation between Russia and the United States will only increase, which will push back the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict to an even more uncertain time.