Armenia’s EU future, current challenges
Pashinyan’s diplomatic maneuvering
ANALYTICS 03 July 2024 - 12:14
Murad Abiyev Caliber.Az |
On July 1, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the "Armenian Forum for Democracy". According to Armenian media, Pashinyan's response to the following question-request from the leader of the European Party of Armenia, Tigran Khzmalyan, aroused the greatest interest. "We have initiated a proposal to hold a referendum on Armenia's accession to the EU. I ask you to help ensure that the people have the opportunity to express themselves independently."
This statement by the pro-European opposition figure prompted Pashinyan to give a rather extensive reply. "We are being told that we should hold a referendum to show that the people support the idea of becoming an EU member. I myself have stated that Armenia is ready to be as close to the EU as the European Union deems possible. If I thought that the people of Armenia did not share this idea, I would not have made such a statement," Pashinyan initially remarked.
Thus, Pashinyan declared to the pro-Western political wing that Armenia does not need to formalize the political will for EU accession, as his statement itself represents this highest political will.
It seems that Pashinyan does not currently need a referendum on Armenia's EU membership for two reasons. Firstly, he is not yet ready to dramatically express "will towards Europe" against the backdrop of Russia continuing to exert significant economic, political, and military influence in Armenia.
Secondly, he does not need the inevitable exaltation of pro-Western sentiments in such a case, which would increase the popularity of pro-Western parties and further diminish his already severely depleted rating.
Pashinyan, meanwhile, continued to expand on his point: “If we hold a referendum, then there must be campaigning before it. And when we go to the people, they will ask us questions: How, when, over what period, what steps will be taken, and does the EU even want this? Is the EU prepared for this? Can I answer that question today? No, I cannot! Because there are ongoing processes within the EU that we need to assess. Elections are held in EU countries, and the results of these elections at least raise questions.”
In other words, the Prime Minister is concerned (and it must be said, quite reasonably) that excessive enthusiasm from Armenians on this issue might meet with cold indifference from European bureaucrats, especially against the backdrop of the rising popularity of far-right parties in Europe, which are known for their opposition to EU expansion and advocating for greater independence of member states from Brussels.
However, as has happened many times before, after saying something more or less clear, Pashinyan immediately fell into the temptation of making a complex and difficult-to-understand set of legalistic statements.
“At the highest level, we have declared our political will to get closer to the EU. Recently, we discussed in a working manner that the ‘new partnership agenda’ is being translated in the press as the ‘new Armenia-EU partnership agenda’, and I am grateful to the EU Ambassador for clearly emphasizing that this is not a new partnership agenda but rather an agenda for new partnership, which is a very specific political message, including in the context of the discussed issue.”
Mikhail Sergeyevich and Viktor Stepanovich, as they say, are resting. If we try to translate this from Pashinyan-speak into plain language, it looks very much like the Armenian prime minister presented the "new partnership agenda" to the people as a maximum goal, suggesting that the issue of EU membership can be put aside (at least for the time being).
Pashinyan, as a compromise figure who is acceptable to Armenian society because it sees no better alternative, is forced to maneuver between various centers of power. In principle, he somehow managed to achieve a privileged position for Armenia, when it is possible to join the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), receive EU and US grants, and simultaneously engage in lucrative re-export of sanctioned goods to Russia, which enriches Armenia.
For now, all players turn a blind eye to this, either because Armenia is very important to them or, conversely, because it does not represent any significant geopolitical interest. Everyone is satisfied, and Pashinyan needs EU membership no more than the EU needs Armenia.
However, the situation could change. Both the West and Pashinyan, if circumstances demand, might seek to take another decisive step towards Armenia’s European integration — for example, by facilitating a referendum on a new constitution that would enshrine Armenia’s aspiration to become a political part of the European Union.
Theoretically, this package could also include the removal of references to the Declaration of Independence, which contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. In theory, Europeans themselves should insist on this amendment to avoid admitting a problematic state into their ranks.
However, we are more inclined to believe that it is in Europe’s interest to keep Armenia under control but at some administrative distance, maintaining its territorial claims against Azerbaijan in its legislation in order to keep tensions high in the South Caucasus.
Caliber.Az
1
|
New Canadian envoy’s hastiness versus President Aliyev's acumen The interest behind envoy's one-sided question?
02 July 2024 - 18:22
|
2
|
Yerevan stalls Zangezur corridor: A "Peace Crossroads" to nowhere Hindering regional connectivity
02 July 2024 - 15:09
|
3
|
Russia destroys five Su-27 fighters at Ukraine's Myrhorod airfield VIDEO
02 July 2024 - 15:09
|
4
|
Lead negotiator: COP29 will be litmus test for Paris agreement Event's future prospects in an interview with Indian media
02 July 2024 - 11:30
|
5
|
Israeli generals, low on munitions, want truce in Gaza
02 July 2024 - 17:47
|
Could “Flying Piano” revolutionise air cargo?
05 July 2024 - 23:03
Third National Yaylag Festival kicks off in Azerbaijan’s Goygol district
PHOTO05 July 2024 - 21:15
Kremlin: No preconditions for resuming Russia-Ukraine negotiations
05 July 2024 - 21:05
Hungarian PM, Russian president explore three key issues
05 July 2024 - 20:52
Türkiye expects NATO solidarity in fight against terrorism
05 July 2024 - 20:38
Azerbaijan, ISO mull implementation of international standards
05 July 2024 - 20:23
Erdogan signals readiness for action in northern Iraq amid rising tensions
05 July 2024 - 20:08
Tajik, Chinese presidents sign joint statement on strategic partnership
05 July 2024 - 19:54
Azerbaijan, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus explore strengthening unity, cooperation
05 July 2024 - 19:39
Mossad chief heading to Qatar
05 July 2024 - 19:26
Azerbaijan, Türkiye hail successful development of brotherhood, friendship, allied relations
05 July 2024 - 19:14
Ambassador: Germany's third Patriot air defence system arrives in Ukraine
05 July 2024 - 19:02
Expert: Armenia needs to commit to constitutional change
05 July 2024 - 18:50
Turkic States' chief praises adoption of Karabakh Declaration for organization's development
05 July 2024 - 18:46
No admission into NATO during wartime
Poland's interior minister says on Ukraine’s membership05 July 2024 - 18:38
ICC Prosecutor Khan's warrant request disrupts Gaza evidence mission
05 July 2024 - 18:26
Azerbaijan-Russia summit in Astana elevates energy, communication cooperation
Expert insights05 July 2024 - 18:14
European Commission: Orban's Moscow visit undermines EU unity
05 July 2024 - 18:02
Italian authorities intercept Chinese drones
Destined for Libyan commander Haftar /PHOTO/VIDEO05 July 2024 - 17:50
Azerbaijani President oversees key developments, inaugurations in Khojaly, Khankandi, Shusha
Airports, universities, hotels, water treatment project05 July 2024 - 17:38
Azerbaijan, China forge strategic partnership amid SCO summit
A milestone in bilateral ties05 July 2024 - 17:38
Azerbaijani top official shares video footage of concert programme in Shusha
VIDEO05 July 2024 - 17:34
Turnout increases in Iran's presidential election runoff
UPDATED05 July 2024 - 17:26
COP29 President engages with Congo's environment minister on ecological initiatives
05 July 2024 - 17:14
Hungarian PM and new parliamentary alliance in EU
Who wins?05 July 2024 - 17:11
Germany fears far-right National Rally victory could harm close ties with France
05 July 2024 - 17:02
Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev lands in Azerbaijan for OTS summit
05 July 2024 - 16:50
Chinese envoy highlights promising SCO partnership for Azerbaijan
05 July 2024 - 16:40
Azerbaijan hosts event on energy efficiency
05 July 2024 - 16:38
Erdogan criticizes UEFA's disqualification of Turkish footballer over "wolf salute"
05 July 2024 - 16:26
SCO focuses on expansion, bilateral deals, long-term vision for unified global South
Highlights from Astana 2024 summit05 July 2024 - 16:14
Kyrgyz leader arrives in Azerbaijan to attend Turkic states summit
05 July 2024 - 16:02
China and Russia race for Kazakhstan's rich uranium reserves
Caliber.Az on YouTube05 July 2024 - 15:54
NATO summit to advocate for standardizing shells
05 July 2024 - 15:50
Finland approves defence agreement with US
05 July 2024 - 15:36
UNDP Brussels office director discusses mine action with Azerbaijan's EU delegation
05 July 2024 - 15:24
Baku, Ankara, Islamabad, Beijing redefine regional dynamics
Geopolitical realities vs. unattainable dreams05 July 2024 - 15:11
MFA: Armenia reserves right to replace ambassador to Russia
05 July 2024 - 14:57
Azerbaijan connects Chinese truck convoy to Europe
A new milestone/PHOTO05 July 2024 - 14:42
President of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus arrives in Azerbaijan's Fuzuli
For Informal Turkic States Summit05 July 2024 - 14:28