Armenia faces crucial choice: EAEU or EU membership? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Armenia cannot simultaneously be a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the EU, stated Russian Ambassador to Armenia Sergey Kopyrkin, emphasizing that this is due to the objective impossibility of being part of two customs unions. According to him, Armenia must make a choice.

"From the very beginning, the Russian side made its position clear: either the EU or the EAEU. It is impossible to be a member of both. This is not the position of the Russian side, but a matter of objective reality, because a country cannot be a member of two customs unions simultaneously," the ambassador was quoted by the Armenian portal 24News. Kopyrkin reminded that Armenia's cooperation with the EAEU and Russia is one of the key factors in the country's economic development, as evidenced by statistics. As for the EU, that is a question for the future. "Currently, the trade turnover between Armenia and the EU is in the negative," he stressed. He also noted that this is a matter of Armenia's sovereign right to choose the option that suits it.

The Armenian Parliament has approved, in the first reading, the draft law on starting the process of the country's accession to the EU. However, as stated by the country’s Minister of Economy, Gevork Papoyan, the Armenian government does not consider the issue of leaving the EAEU. Despite the fact that the relevant parliamentary committee recently postponed, "for technical reasons," the discussion of the bill on Armenia's intention to join the European Union before the second reading, officials in Yerevan have claimed that "there are no political disagreements on this issue."

In Russia, Armenia's intention to join the EU was compared to purchasing a ticket for the "Titanic," given the current problems within the European Union. Armenia must decide on its integration course, as the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union are incompatible due to differences in the principles of free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor, warned Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk. According to him, severing ties with the EAEU would lead to an increase in food and electricity prices in Armenia, and the export of goods produced in the country would decrease by up to 80%.

It is interesting to consider how Armenia's leadership envisions a way out of this deadlock (which, by the way, was created by their own actions). Could the ruling team have any plan for overcoming this contradiction in the foreseeable future?

Russian analysts agreed to share their thoughts on this matter with Caliber.Az.

Stanislav Pritchin, Candidate of Historical Sciences and Senior Researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) in Moscow, stated that, indeed, according to Russian authorities' assessments (which are, in general, cumulative evaluations, since they cover both bilateral cooperation within the framework of the EAEU and broader cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union), Armenia has a very significant dependency in this regard.

"If we look at the directions of foreign trade, Armenia primarily benefits from trade with Russia and investments from the Russian Federation. Therefore, if a decision is made in Yerevan to choose another direction of integration, towards the European Union, all the current preferences Armenia enjoys will, of course, be completely annulled. And that's why the Russian government is directly stating that a choice must be made.

As for any strategic diversification of risks, there have been no visible steps taken by the Armenian authorities so far. Objectively, there are none.

One should not expect the European Union to open quotas for Armenian goods or ease logistics chains. Even if this happens, Armenian goods will still need to be competitive with European products in order to occupy some niche in the European market. This will take time. However, the losses from the Russian market, from its closure, will be felt here and now," predicted Pritchin, forecasting an unfavorable outcome.

Russian expert on the South Caucasus, Konstantin Tasic, in turn, noted that, according to many specialists (including some Armenian ones), the initiative to adopt the law on European integration is completely underdeveloped.

"The text of the draft law consists of a single sentence stating that Yerevan is starting the process of joining the EU. It contains no details, lacks specificity, and does not take into account the existing realities," the political scientist remarked in bewilderment.

In his opinion, the goal of this initiative is more about political strategy.

"There is a suggestion that EU accession will be one of the slogans of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party, Civil Contract, in the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, as we can see, important geopolitical changes are currently happening in the world. Against this backdrop, it cannot be ruled out that Armenia's leadership will once again adjust its views," Tasic speculated.