Armenian PM underestimates leader of Belarus Experts’ opinions at Caliber.Az

A scandal is breaking out between Armenia and Belarus due to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statements towards the Belarusian leader.

While delivering a speech at the Armenian National Assembly, Pashinyan said that neither he nor other official representative of Armenia would ever visit Belarus while Belarus is led by Alexander Lukashenko. Moreover, the Armenian ambassador to Belarus has been summoned to Yerevan for consultations. Minsk also responded.

“We all see a difficult internal political situation, rapid escalation of the situation in Armenia today. Of course, people resist serious emotional stress in various ways. We can understand this. What is Belarus' fault? We don’t understand. A representative of the Armenian embassy has been recently summoned to the foreign ministry to try to clarify this issue. Taking into account the developments, Belarus ambassador from Yerevan will also arrive in Minsk soon. If anyone decided to divert attention from internal problems by imagining about an external enemy, then this is a very short-sighted position,” Press Secretary of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry Anatoly Glaz said.

Why does Pashinyan act like this? How will Minsk react to Yerevan’s vagary? Political analysts from Belarus expressed their opinions for Caliber.Az.

Expert at the Standing Commission of the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly Oleg Leshenyuk has said that Pashinyan’s actions are a consequence of negotiations with France and other Western countries.

“The statements about leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organisation [CSTO], personal accusations against Lukashenko are nothing more than the result of the geopolitical games of the West, in which Pashinyan was drawn into. French Minister of Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu visited Yerevan in February 2024 and discussed the modernisation of weapons and the Armenian army, the training of military personnel and the supply of military equipment. That’s why, there is tension in the Azerbaijan-France relations. It is clear that France will not do this for free, i.e., in the conditions of global confrontation, Pashinyan has no other option but to fulfill the conditions of his Western patrons,” the expert said.

"In general, the scenario of developments in Ukraine and Moldova is obvious. A policy towards the West is being determined towards reducing interaction with Russia and Belarus. Minsk regrets about Pashinyan’s statements. Belarus understands that the actions of the Armenian authorities will lead the country to a crisis. First of all, there will be destabilisation of the situation in Armenia itself. Nevertheless, Belarus respects the choice of a sovereign country and has always been and remains open to dialogue and interaction,” he added.

Candidate of political science Sergei Tomits said that Minsk will surely respond to Pashinyan’s scandalous statements. This rhetoric will negatively affect relations between the two countries.

“Nevertheless, Minsk understands that Pashinyan’s ridiculous accusations are the result of Yerevan’s policy of establishing close relations, active behind-the-scenes activity with Western countries, the US and the EU, within which there may be such complications. It is quite obvious that the moment has come for Yerevan to formulate its unwillingness to cooperate within the CSTO. For this purpose, Pashinyan is ready to act as usual by using scandalous and provocative rhetoric. This is the most efficient and effective option,” he said.

“Minsk may react sharply in response, which will be beneficial for Yerevan. The intensification of political conflict is beneficial to Pashinyan, for which he can only be praised by Washington and Brussels. Pashinyan believes that he will get more political benefits. In reality Pashinyan is not actually working to leave the CSTO. He just makes loud statements. Pashinyan fears dire consequences in case of any real steps and prefers to use emotional phrases, for which he can later apologize and take the words back. However, Pashinyan seems to be underestimating the situation. Lukashenko can react much sharper than Putin,” he added.