Armenian pundit: PM Pashinyan to be overthrown by his supporters

Armenian political technologist Armen Badalyan has said that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will be overthrown by his supporters.

"The ruling force is already non-monolithic, and in case of a serious clash of interests, the incumbent prime minister may be ousted by his current associates. Pashinyan does not have the total control over his team members that he had in 2018," Badalyan told Armenian media, Caliber.Az reports.

"The initial euphoria associated with the fight against corruption announced after coming to power has passed, members of the ruling team began to build their future. Some have started to open businesses, using their contacts and influence in state structures to promote them, while others are eager to show that they are 'the first in power.'

The current state of the ruling party lacks monolithicity, but this is a natural process that takes place in all countries. It is a social pattern and Pashinyan cannot fight against this pattern. This was not the case in 2018, but the Civil Contract party is no longer the same as it was in 2018, Pashinyan does not have total control here. After 2018, members of the team began to promote their interests, to promote the appointment of their own people, who now no longer depend on Pashinyan, but on them. This is how groupings within the government are formed.

The groups formed within the ruling team compete for influence and fight against each other. This struggle is expressed both in the form of dirt in the media and, as we see, in the form of criminal cases.

I would like to draw attention to the fact that within the framework of the corruption scandal the Deputy Minister of Economy (Ani Ispiryan), who, in fact, was the 'first violin' in this process, was given house arrest. And with regard to the Speaker's relative, who, by and large, was in a secondary role, jail arrest is applied. This is a kind of message. Whether or not the court will take into account the guarantee of the MPs - it will also make it possible to come to a certain understanding of the processes that took place.

If the said arrest is the PM's reaction to the coup attempts behind the scenes, then we should expect that Pashinyan will have serious problems in using this method in the future. The Civil Contract party is not monolithic; if Pashinyan tries to deprive any of the odious members of the Civil Contract faction of immunity within the framework of a criminal case, he may encounter obstacles.

At the moment when Pashinyan fails to obtain permission from parliament to arrest one or another member of the faction, the coup should be considered a fait accompli, since the group that prevented this arrest can easily come to an agreement with the opposition and send Pashinyan to resign,” Badalyan believes.