"Armenians should understand: delaying will cause them headache" Afterword to Bayramov-Mirzoyan meeting

On July 16, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. A significant and landmark meeting - Azerbaijani President had recently noted in his speech that he was waiting for the results of the meeting. According to the unanimous opinion of the expert community, the Bayramov-Mirzoyan format is a new stage of the dialogue between Baku and Yerevan. However, Armenia, as I remember, has long avoided a one-on-one conversation, while Baku has accumulated many claims to the Armenian side, demanding a speedy resolution. So everything is not so smooth...

Azerbaijan has actually forced the Armenian side to negotiate in order to make it clear that it has no time and no room for maneuvering. The President directly charged Bayramov with an important mission - to urgently bring to Yerevan the need to implement the paragraphs of the Trilateral Declaration of November 10, 2020, and other commitments made. To warn that Baku's patience is running out and the theses of Ilham Aliyev's last speech testify to it. The President, without exaggeration, slammed both Armenia and RPC (Russian Peacekeeping Contingent) for ignoring their obligations, first of all regarding the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Karabakh. We are practically talking about revanchist terrorists, who must be removed from the region once and for all, and never return to this issue again.

So what exactly did Bayramov talk about at the meeting with his Armenian counterpart?

First of all, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov told Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan of the need to fulfill all the provisions of the trilateral statements signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia, in particular the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Azerbaijani territory.

Touching upon humanitarian issues, Jeyhun Bayramov drew his colleague's attention to the importance of finding out the fate of almost 4,000 missing Azerbaijanis.

At the same time, he stressed that all efforts today should be aimed at achieving progress in the settlement of relations between Baku and Yerevan "based on the post-conflict realities that have arisen after the resolution of the armed conflict between the two states." In this context, as stated in the information of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "the need to fulfill all the provisions of the trilateral statements was once again emphasized."

That is, the head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry did not allow himself any threats, but his warnings were direct and harsh.

In this regard, the statement by the head of the Karabakh Armenians Movement, Artur Aghajanov, on peaceful dialogue is noteworthy. It shows that the Armenian public is tired of Yerevan's games and wants relations with Baku to improve as soon as possible. "Azerbaijan has been waiting for 30 years for substantive negotiations from the previous and current Armenian leadership," Aghajanov told the Interfax-Azerbaijan news agency. And he added: "Let's be honest - the current deadlock was created by the Armenian side."

Aghajanov did not hide his opinion about Yerevan's initiatives, which does not give up hope to reanimate the OSCE Minsk Group. "Where is the logic of Armenian politicians? How can representatives of Russia, France, and the US decide something in the current situation? There is only one way out for Yerevan, moreover, it is the right and real way out - not to prolong negotiations with Baku, as well as to establish good neighborly relations with Azerbaijan," he admitted.

In the West, too, the reaction to the meeting of the two ministers was swift. This is a sign of certain expectations of European and American politicians in this regard.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Twitter that Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan "took a positive step" by meeting in Tbilisi.

"Direct dialogue is the most reliable way to resolve disagreements between Azerbaijan and Armenia," Blinken noted.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is very skeptical about the maneuvers of the Armenian side, knowing its passion for improvisation and various false starts. The demands are more and more frequently voiced that a tougher word must be spoken to Armenia, which is hindering the peace dialogue process as much as possible.

And so, according to Milli Mejlis deputy and political analyst Rasim Musabekov, with this meeting "the President warned Armenians that delaying the resolution of specific problems would cost them dearly."

"The details were brought through Mirzoyan by Jeyhun Bayramov. We are waiting for concrete decisions on the Zangazur corridor as we approach Aghbend by the end of the year. The Armenians have to start restoring the railroad bed so that the track laying machine starts laying finished sections in the Armenian section. Russian Railways will most likely do this using our railway equipment. Armenians simply don't have a railway approach to the Meghri section. In Soviet times, this section belonged to the Azerbaijani railroad and was managed from Baku. We are also waiting for Yerevan's decision on the road as soon as possible. The rock, which stands on the last 7-kilometer section at the entrance to the Nakhchivan AR, must either be bypassed or a tunnel must be built," Musabekov noted in his conversation with the author of this article.

Musabekov considers it extremely important for the conclusion of peace and the withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces from the "piece of land in Karabakh, which is under the control of the RPC."

"President Aliyev has publicly issued a warning to both Yerevan and Moscow. The delaying will cause headache to Armenians and the RPC," Musabekov stressed.

At the same time, according to him, the case does not have to be brought to the shooting, "but they may be left without water in the height of summer, and without electricity and gas in the winter cold. Let them scream to the whole world. Without the withdrawal of the Armenian armed groups and the remaining heavy equipment, the situation will not be improved."

The political scientist supposes Armenians have already learned their "little lesson." Azerbaijan's patience is unlikely to be tested yet. "Armenians should also draw conclusions from the story with Farrukh. If they get into trouble, they will get it in full, and no RPC will protect them," Musabekov said quite concretely.

At the same time, the Tbilisi meeting was important in the context of starting bilateral talks between the Foreign Ministers without mediators.

"If Armenians really realize that it is necessary to engage in a concrete discussion of a peace treaty, this is the most appropriate platform. If they return to the same old story about the defunct Minsk Group, they are not ready for concrete talks and the delaying tactics will continue. But Baku has given its warning, and Armenians should know that they themselves are to blame for the unpleasant consequences," Musabekov concluded.