Belarus stays the course for peace and sovereignty Lukashenko’s resounding victory in presidential elections

On January 26, presidential elections took place in the Republic of Belarus. No matter what the detractors may say, the citizens' expression of will once again confirmed that the country’s course toward peaceful development and friendly relations with its neighbours remains unchanged.

Systemic liberalism

Unlike the turbulent events of 2020, when certain external and internal forces attempted to destabilize the situation, this year’s elections were held in a completely different environment. At the same time, the registered presidential candidates reflected the full political spectrum of Belarusian society.

In addition to the incumbent president, Alexander Lukashenko, the ballots included the names of four alternative candidates. Oleg Gaidukevich, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus (LDPR), was one of them. His initiative group was registered for the 2020 presidential elections, but he chose not to participate in favour of Lukashenko. The slogan of Gaidukevich’s current campaign is "For a Strong Belarus!" In general, his election program supports everything positive and good, advocating for sovereignty, the support of education, culture, youth, retirees, and law enforcement personnel.

The politician also advocates for traditional values. However, his party is not called liberal for nothing. Although Gaidukevich demands a tough stance towards the unconstructive opposition, he is a liberal when it comes to economics. The politician supports simplifying tax legislation, creating better conditions for small and medium-sized businesses, and gradually introducing pension savings schemes. Oleg Gaidukevich also insists on easing penalties for economic crimes. In short, the candidate from the LDPR is a clear systemic liberal, representing the interests of small and medium-sized businesses.

“Alternative families” as the opposition's program

A more radical liberal position is represented by a former member of the opposition United Civic Party (UCP), Hanna Kanapatskaya. However, much of her program also contains typical populism. For example, Kanapatskaya frequently laments the "depopulation" of Belarus. But weren’t the efforts of "reformers" during the turbulent 1990s the ones that kickstarted the processes leading to the population decline?

Her proposals for improving demographics also appear unconvincing. For instance, lowering the minimum marriage age for girls to 17. Currently, marriage for minors is permitted if necessary (for example, due to pregnancy). But making this the norm would essentially encourage "adult" relationships among underage girls, which is unlikely to positively impact family and motherhood in the long run.

Equally questionable is the proposal to grant fathers with young children a four-year deferral from military service, while simultaneously raising the draft age to 20. As can be understood, this is done with the sole purpose of encouraging early marriages through military deferral. The deliberate opposition of civic duty to service in the Armed Forces will benefit neither families nor the military. Furthermore, a draft evader is unlikely to become a reliable pillar of support for his family and children.

Additionally, Kanapatskaya proposes introducing a legal concept of "alternative families," offering them legislative guarantees. Such families would include single-parent households and "civil marriages." However, strictly speaking, with the separation of church and state, all registered marriages are already civil. Perhaps what she means is cohabitation? But how much will equating cohabitation, which lacks clear criteria, with traditional marriage strengthen the institution of the family?

Kanapatskaya also expresses concern that a "Russian-European union" might bypass Belarus along the external borders. However, no such union between Russia and the West is even close to being a reality at the moment. This is likely a subtle hint at the pro-Western orientation of the candidate herself.

Most importantly, Kanapatskaya advocates for tax cuts and the privatization of state-owned enterprises, which would lead to job cuts, unemployment, and the other drawbacks of liberal economic policies. She also supports private ownership of land, which, in practice, would result in the purchase of Belarusian land by foreign corporations. This, in itself, would jeopardize Belarus's sovereignty and independence. Additionally, the liberal candidate is in favour of amnesty for shadow capital.

Facing the Labour East

Another alternative candidate is Alexander Khizhnyak, chairman of the Republican Party of Labor and Justice (RPTJ). He promises young people their first job with a high salary and benefits, the creation of grant and startup exchanges, and conditions for investment. He also speaks about supporting the entrepreneurial initiative of small and medium-sized businesses. At the same time, his platform includes assistance to pensioners and young families through preferential rent and mortgages with minimal interest rates, as well as pension indexing. Khizhnyak also declares that he will seek the lifting of sanctions against Belarus. Nominally, his party, RPTJ, is centre-left, but it appears that Khizhnyak’s program gives a strong priority to the interests of small and medium-sized businesses as well.

On the other hand, Sergei Syrankov, the presidential candidate from the Communist Party of Belarus (CPB), has clearly prioritized the protection of workers' interests. The CPB candidate entered the race not only with the slogan “Not instead – but together!” (meaning together with the incumbent president) but also with a very impressive social program. This includes a call for replacing the current short-term contract employment with permanent labour contracts, which clearly appeals to the majority of Belarusian workers. Also proposed are significant measures such as a moratorium on privatization and the gradual nationalization of banks. The ban on privatization is motivated, in part, by the need to protect the country’s sovereignty from globalist capital.

In Syrankov's program, he also states that "healthcare and education are public goods, not privileges." Some slogans from the candidate’s young team sound so "vintage" they could have been taken from the "ROSTA windows" during Mayakovsky’s time: "Culture – for the working person!" and "No to depravity and bourgeois decay!" Despite this, Syrankov does take the issue of preserving the family and traditional values very seriously, emphasizing the need for improving morality in society, and stepping up the fight against drug trafficking, corruption, racism, and fascism.

His program also envisions increasing the efficiency of state-run enterprises using digital technologies, especially drawing on the successful experiences of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Belarusian communists do not hide the fact that the experience of their Chinese comrades, who have made their country the world’s largest economy by GDP (PPP), is extremely important to them.

In foreign policy, the CPB candidate opposes all forms of colonialism and discrimination, and directly declares as his priority: "Orientation toward the labour East!" Syrankov supports China’s project of building a "Community of Common Destiny for Humanity" and the "Belt and Road" initiative.

For the dictatorship of good and respect for labour

As for Alexander Lukashenko, his best campaign has been his entire previous tenure as president. The Belarusian leader has managed to steer the state ship through challenging waters, so to speak, especially in recent years. In 2020, external forces attempted a state coup, and since 2022, war has been raging right on Belarus’s borders. However, the authority of Belarus’s "Father," who has managed to preserve peace and stability in the republic, has only grown recently. Naturally, in this election, Lukashenko faced no competition. The alternative candidates, on the other hand, were competing for the honourable second place, hoping that certain points of their programs would be taken into account by the head of state in the future. However, the president has already stated that he was most impressed by Sergei Syrankov’s program.

The leader of Belarus, in his usual succinct and accessible manner, outlined his credo during his speech on January 24 at the final concert of the "Marathon of Unity" event. Lukashenko, speaking in Belarusian, placed special emphasis on the protection of Belarus’s sovereignty and independence: "On this God-given piece of land, our united home. And this home is not for sale for any money." He also referred to all Belarusians as his children and promised that anyone who had stumbled or fallen for provocations would have a chance to return to normal life. "We will preserve the most important thing: the dictatorship of order, justice, good, and respect for the person. First of all – for the working person! We will not dance to someone else’s tune, we will not bow to a master’s whip, and we will not allow an invader’s boot to step on our native land," Lukashenko said.

At the same time, the West had already declared the elections in Belarus illegitimate. Such a resolution was passed by the European Parliament on January 22 at a special session dedicated to this issue. The Parliamentary Assembly and the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the OSCE, the European External Action Service, and others had also opposed recognizing the elections in Belarus as legitimate. A similar statement was made by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the final days of his tenure. However, on January 24, the U.S. State Department removed the statement of the former Secretary of State from its website.

The leader of the "fleeing" opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, predictably called the elections "re-elections" and a "farce," fully aligning with the playbook of her sponsors and curators.

In response to the boycott of the elections by European diplomacy head, Kaja Kallas, Belarus's CEC chairman, Igor Karpenko, remarked: "We don’t know, we weren’t invited to her election, we didn’t observe, we didn’t see, we didn’t go, we don’t know how that procedure took place. But at the same time, write that we don’t recognize her as the legitimate head of EU diplomacy..."

However, the ongoing elections in Belarus were monitored by 486 international observers from 52 countries, including 17 European ones. Observers from Azerbaijan and representatives of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) were also present.

On the day of the elections, Alexander Lukashenko held a press conference. In response to a question from an international journalist, the Belarusian leader said: "I don’t care whether you recognize these elections or not. The most important thing is that the Belarusians recognize these elections..." He also responded to a question from a correspondent for La Stampa: "The French and Italians need to know that we will build our life... You won’t do anything to us."

Proven choice

According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), 41.81% of voters participated in early voting. On the main election day, January 26, it was evident even to the naked eye that there was significant interest in the elections, despite the absence of the radical rhetoric from alternative candidates that was present in 2020. People were lined up in an endless chain to cast their ballots and fulfil their civic duty. By 4:00 PM, the voter turnout had reached 75.49%. By 8:00 PM, when polling stations closed, 85.7% of voters in Belarus had cast their votes. The highest turnout was in the Mogilev region, with 92.64%, while the lowest was in Minsk at 69.72%, which may reflect specific sentiments among some residents of the capital, despite its highest standard of living. The elections proceeded without significant incidents.

According to preliminary data from the CEC, Alexander Lukashenko received 86.82% of the votes. Sergei Syrankov took second place with 3.21%, Oleg Gaidukevich came third with 2.02%, Hanna Kanapatskaya gathered 1.86%, and Alexander Khiznyak received 1.74%. 3.6% of voters at polling stations voted "against all." Exit polls showed similar results. Since Syrankov, Gaidukevich, and Khiznyak, who declared their loyalty to Lukashenko, were largely supported by his own backers, the actual support for the incumbent president exceeds 90%.

The outcome was predictable—the Belarusian people once again expressed their trust in their seasoned leader. Undoubtedly, this time, many of Lukashenko's former opponents or critics also voted for him. Time has shown who the true national leader is. Against the backdrop of the raging conflict in neighbouring countries, Belarus stands as an island of stability, and people do not want to lose it.

Indeed, the events of 2020 would never have been ignited out of nowhere if not for the occasional indifference of officials towards the needs of ordinary people and the thoughtless adherence of some "reformers" to the IMF recipes and the advice of Western experts, which fueled tensions in society. But, thank God, the president and his team understood the situation, stopped ill-conceived reforms, and implemented a series of social regulation measures. This also added to Lukashenko’s respect among ordinary citizens, who continue to see him as their protector, both from the market's forces and from irresponsible local bureaucracy.

Can Belarus expect any changes under Alexander Lukashenko’s new term as head of state? Certainly, changes are to be expected because the stagnant system is doomed to collapse. The role of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA), a kind of supra-parliamentary congress with an expanded composition, is likely to grow stronger. The most interesting program proposals, supported by the highest number of alternative candidates, will also be taken into account. At the aforementioned press conference, Lukashenko already stated that he is ready to engage in dialogue with the opposition. However, he considers only those who remain in the country as the opposition. Specifically, he mentioned Hanna Kanapatskaya, noting her persistence, and the Communists: "The Communists, no matter how much they praise me, have grievances about certain issues with the current government."

Thus, in the near future, a new, national, and responsible political opposition could emerge in Belarus, formed by the candidates and parties that participated in these elections. However, Belarus will certainly continue to follow its traditional course of ensuring security and stability.

Unlikely, any significant changes will occur in Belarus's foreign policy, which has long been focused on maintaining friendly relations with all countries. This includes Azerbaijan, a longstanding and reliable ally of Belarus. Strong, friendly ties also bind the recognized leaders of both countries. It is no coincidence that one of the first to congratulate Lukashenko on his electoral victory was President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.

"Esteemed Aleksandr Grigoryevich, I sincerely congratulate you on your re-election as President of the Republic of Belarus. Your decisive victory in the elections reflects the high level of trust placed in you and the support of the people of Belarus for your consistent efforts to strengthen statehood and public order, improve the well-being of the population, and implement democratic reforms across all areas of public life. I am confident that our joint efforts will continue to contribute to strengthening and expanding the traditional ties of friendship and comprehensive cooperation between Azerbaijan and Belarus, as well as to developing mutually beneficial collaboration for the welfare of our peoples and countries," reads the congratulatory letter from Ilham Aliyev to Alexander Lukashenko.