Breakthrough or dead end? Ahead of the anticipated Istanbul talks

The issue of Russian-Ukrainian settlement has once again begun to revolve around the former capital of the Ottoman Empire. The back-and-forth initiated by the Russian and Ukrainian leaders over a ceasefire and negotiations has resulted in an agreement: talks will take place, and they will be held in Istanbul.

There is a strong temptation to say that matters are moving towards a resolution, yet this feeling is more speculative than based on solid facts. Kyiv, having accepted Moscow’s challenge regarding talks in Istanbul, put forward a bold counterproposal: the meeting should be at the level of heads of state. President Zelenskyy announced that he would travel to Ankara to meet with Turkish President Erdoğan and is ready to go to Istanbul to meet with President Putin—if, of course, the latter agrees to come.

At the time of publication of our article, the Russian capital still remains silent regarding the composition of the delegation. We only have a quote from Russian Presidential Assistant Yuri Ushakov on this matter: “The delegation will discuss political issues and, I would say, a myriad of technical questions, so, based on that, the composition will be determined,” he said. The word "myriad" is somewhat confusing—either everything with Kyiv has already been conceptually agreed upon, or Ushakov might be referring to negotiations with Washington, not Kyiv.

In general, the presence of the American delegation is obviously necessary in order to cushion any possible mishaps related to the readiness of the two main parties.

Earlier on May 14, Brazilian President da Silva announced that he plans to visit Moscow after his trip to Beijing to personally urge Russian President Vladimir Putin to take part in negotiations with Ukraine. “It won't cost me anything to say, 'Hey comrade Putin, go to Istanbul and negotiate,’” he told journalists in China.

It is highly likely that such a call was coordinated with the Russian leader; otherwise, da Silva would be putting himself in an awkward position. In that case, it would be a positive signal indicating that Putin might indeed agree to come. On the other hand, the Brazilian leader's appeal provides Putin with a strong argument to shift his stance on the handshake issue with Zelenskyy, helping to "convince" him that a meeting with Zelenskyy is necessary for the greater good of global peace – since the Brazilian president is acting on behalf of the entire Global South.

The question is what Putin will demand in return for his recognition of Zelenskyy's legitimacy. Hypothetically, this could involve a whole package of demands related to Ukraine’s neutral status, the size of its armed forces, and the so-called "denazification."

But why would Zelenskyy agree to this? What benefit does he gain from Putin’s recognition of his legitimacy if, beyond that recognition, he gets nothing? It’s hard to imagine that Moscow would agree to return even part of the occupied territories, given that it has already legally "incorporated" them. What could Putin offer him that Zelenskyy could "sell" to his electorate as a prize for three years of bloody war?

Zelenskyy, by proposing a one-on-one meeting, was likely counting on the fact that Putin wouldn't come. This would allow him to kill two birds with one stone: continue the war and point to Trump, framing Putin as someone unwilling to bring it to an end.

What if Putin, deciding to disrupt the game, actually shows up for the meeting? What then? In reality, not much would change. They wouldn’t agree on anything and would continue fighting. Putin would say that, for the sake of stopping the war, he was willing to go against his own words. Zelenskyy would likely say something similar—let’s not forget that negotiations with Putin are legally prohibited in Ukraine.

By the way, there’s also a third possibility—Putin might come for a meeting with Trump, not Zelenskyy. So far, the U.S. president hasn’t confirmed his participation in the talks. However, by embarking on his Middle Eastern tour, he has created the impression that the "tough guy" is "somewhere nearby." "In the meantime," he secured a $142 billion arms deal with Riyadh and agreed to attract another $600 billion in investments, all while making it clear that evaluating his first hundred days is nothing more than a silly cliché that, of course, he doesn’t fit into.