Can Israel’s Operation Rising Lion halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions?

A recent Foreign Affairs article offers an in-depth exploration of Israel’s audacious Operation Rising Lion—an unprecedented military campaign that targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities with precision strikes, delivering a significant blow to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. More than a display of military might, the operation signals a critical juncture in Middle Eastern geopolitics, where force and diplomacy intertwine to redefine regional security.

The article begins by recalling Israel’s longstanding “Begin Doctrine,” a principle established five decades ago to prevent hostile neighbours from acquiring nuclear weapons. Operation Rising Lion, launched in June, marks the most comprehensive application of this doctrine, aiming to cripple Iran’s dispersed and heavily fortified nuclear infrastructure, unlike previous strikes on Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007). Over a period of nearly two weeks, Israel executed over 1,200 sorties, destroying roughly 80 per cent of Iran’s air defence systems, key nuclear sites like Natanz and Fordow, and eliminating top IRGC leaders and nuclear scientists—showcasing extraordinary operational precision.

Yet the success of the operation owes much to Iran’s relative vulnerability. The article highlights how Tehran’s regional allies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad’s regime—had been weakened significantly by prior conflicts, and Iranian air defences exposed during recent Israeli strikes. Capitalising on this moment, Israel, backed by U.S. military support, launched the world’s first attack on such a sophisticated and multilayered nuclear program.

Still, Foreign Affairs emphasises that the broader implications remain uncertain. Intelligence estimates diverge: some officials claim the attack dealt “severe” damage, while others suggest only a temporary delay in Iran’s nuclear timeline. Iran faces complex choices—resuming diplomatic talks, covertly advancing nuclear development, or escalating tensions by leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The country must also balance rebuilding its missile forces and defence systems with constrained resources.

The article strongly advocates for diplomacy as the ultimate path forward. With Iran weakened, the United States and Israel have a unique window to secure a robust nuclear deal—one that halts uranium enrichment, permits intrusive inspections, and curbs missile and satellite programs. This approach offers the most sustainable solution to Iran’s nuclear challenge.

Beyond nuclear issues, the piece envisions a broader regional transformation. The current moment presents an opportunity to craft a comprehensive security architecture that could ease hostilities across the Middle East. Proposed elements include Israeli agreements with Syria and Lebanon to neutralise Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah and militant Palestinian factions while preserving Israeli sovereignty over contested areas like the Golan Heights. Peace frameworks modeled on successful precedents—such as the Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai—could oversee compliance and foster lasting stability.

The analysis also highlights the U.S.-Israel partnership’s technological and strategic superiority as a decisive factor in the campaign’s success. This operation signals a new era where capable allies shoulder the bulk of defence responsibilities with Washington’s backing, projecting strength without overextension.

However, the article cautions that Iran will adapt and potentially escalate proxy conflicts or clandestine nuclear efforts, indicating that this confrontation is far from over.

By Vugar Khalilov