Europe scrambles to prioritise homeland defence

European nations may be unprepared if American forces reduce their presence on the continent, raising questions about long-term security in the face of growing threats from Russia and other powers.

For years, many European leaders dismissed the possibility of the US withdrawing troops as unrealistic.

Today, it is a scenario being actively considered. Officials in the Trump administration have made it clear that America’s priority is defending its own borders and deterring China, while expecting European countries to “shoulder more of the burden” for their own security.

According to The Economist, Europe’s defence challenges go beyond budgetary constraints. Many countries have invested in light, expeditionary forces designed for overseas missions, peacekeeping, and multinational operations, rather than forces capable of defending their own territory.

These choices, shaped by political priorities, were reinforced after the September 11 attacks, when the US encouraged NATO members to contribute troops to campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Ireland offers a striking example of the broader European debate. With a small, largely symbolic military, its neutrality has long been seen as a moral stance. The upcoming presidential election has put defence on the agenda, with candidates offering contrasting visions.

Heather Humphreys, a centre-right former minister, supports increasing defence spending and reforming the “triple lock” law that governs overseas troop deployments. Her opponent, Catherine Connolly, a hard-left parliamentarian, emphasises pacifism and warns against militarisation and arms profiteering.

Despite planned increases, Ireland will continue to spend less than 1% of its GDP on defence, far below the NATO target of 3.5%. Its navy maintains only two operational patrol ships, and its air force lacks fighter jets, highlighting Europe’s vulnerability even in strategically important regions.

Security experts say Ireland’s situation mirrors broader European trends. Decades of prioritising peacekeeping and bureaucratic solutions have left many countries unprepared for modern threats. The invasion of Ukraine prompted historically neutral Finland and Sweden to join NATO, underscoring the limits of neutrality in a volatile security environment.

European governments now face difficult conversations about priorities, spending, and potential adversaries. Analysts say such debates are long overdue if Europe is to avoid relying solely on American protection.

By Aghakazim Guliyev