European mission's unwanted presence in Armenia An obstacle to Baku-Yerevan peace process

The peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia is currently at a standstill. Although both sides claim that 90 per cent of the text has already been agreed upon, and they mention the agreement on 15 out of 17 points, it is the remaining points that form the most difficult knot of contradictions, and reaching a consensus on them seems impossible for now.

As is known, one of these points is Azerbaijan's demand for Armenia to carry out constitutional reforms in order to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan from Armenia's constitution. This issue has been widely discussed, and it seems there is no light at the end of the tunnel for now, at least not until 2027, the date when the Armenian government plans to hold a constitutional referendum.

Analyzing the statements from official Baku as well as expert opinions, one can conclude that another problematic issue (possibly not formally included in the remaining two unresolved points of the agreement text) at the heart of the obstacles in the peace process is the EU's spy mission in Armenia (EUMA).

In recent months, Azerbaijan has increasingly expressed its dissatisfaction with the activities and, in general, the very existence of this mission.

In October, while receiving the credentials of the newly appointed Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Kingdom of Belgium to Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized, among other things, that one of the issues causing distrust in relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union is the extension of the so-called "European Observation Mission" at the border without Baku's consent or even without consulting with it.

"Why was it necessary?! Azerbaijan had agreed in October 2022 in Prague that the mission was supposed to stay for a couple of months with a limited number of retired military officers. However, when the mission was prolonged, they did not consult with us,” the Azerbaijani leader noted, adding that discussions are ongoing for further extension.

The head of state went on to say that the conduct of the members of this mission, referred to as “binocular diplomacy,” was absolutely unacceptable and went beyond any standards of normal political culture. Azerbaijan will continue to raise these issues in its communications with the EU.

Just recently, as we also reported, President's Assistant Hikmet Hajiyev stated that the European Union's mission at the Armenian-Azerbaijani conditional border should be concluded, noting that this mission was originally intended to be short-term.

"The EU mission is not a factor contributing to peace in the region. This depends on Armenia and Azerbaijan. The presence of a third party at the border only increases tension. And some European countries, speaking on behalf of the EU mission, are implementing their own plans in Armenia," Hajiyev emphasized.

The head of the South Caucasus Research Center, Farhad Mammadov, in a publication on his Telegram channel "Mneniye FM," notes: "One of the points of the peace agreement concerns the process of border delimitation, and Azerbaijan opposes the presence of third parties at the border, whether they are armed forces or those disguised in blue vests as so-called observers. The logic is simple: if there are no third parties at the negotiating table, then there should be no one on the ground either!" 

He adds: "Recently, Pashinyan stated that representatives of EUMA will not appear at sections of the border that have already been delimited and demarcated. This means that EUMA will be at the borders with Azerbaijan for many years... With this approach, Armenia will question the effectiveness of the intergovernmental commission on border delimitation, bringing it to a standstill. Because then Azerbaijan may set a condition for the cessation of EUMA's activities to continue the work of the commission..." In fact, Hikmet Hajiyev has already voiced the first such signal (see above).

Mammadov also points out that the EU has chosen Armenia as a priority in its foreign policy, despite the announced reduction in the number of staff at diplomatic and other representations. At the same time, on the ground (as we have already reported), EUMA enthusiastically reports on a four-thousand-strong patrol, while the French ambassador in Yerevan demonstratively praises the mission, describing it as almost a lifesaver for the Armenian people in the face of the threat of a "Turkish onslaught." All these actions create a "noble noise" in Armenia and the West, intended to signal to Baku that the mission is not planning to leave.

As Farhad Mammadov also points out, Armenia has not yet appealed to the EU for the extension of the EUMA mission, which is set to expire in February next year.

Yerevan finds itself in an interesting situation. Against the backdrop of growing signals from Baku urging the EU mission to wind down, a request for its extension would appear as a serious blow to the peace process. It remains to be seen what step the Pashinyan government will take.

Overall, a picture emerges in which Armenia is using external factors to resist a final and comprehensive resolution of the conflict. Meanwhile, external powers are using Armenia as a means to destabilize the region in their own interests. Armenia demonstrates both a lack of will for peace and a deficit of sovereignty — a combination of symptoms fatal for the patient.