Four challenges facing Strait of Hormuz should truce ever be reached

While the interim US-Iran peace agreement had reopened the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments, before the latest eruption of hostilities following attacks on tankers, analysts warn that restoring energy exports to pre-conflict levels is likely to be a slow and highly uncertain process once the stage is reached.

Although the agreement had allowed maritime traffic to resume through the strategic waterway, there is little historical precedent for reversing a disruption of this scale, as highlighted by the Council on Foreign Relations think-tank. More than 10 million barrels of oil per day and roughly 300 million cubic metres of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports were effectively stranded during more than 100 days of disruption.

Experts remain divided over how quickly supplies can recover. More optimistic assessments suggest that most—though not all—exports could return within a matter of months, even if tensions between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved. More cautious forecasts warn that repeated disruptions, operational bottlenecks and lingering security risks could prevent a full recovery for a prolonged period.

The pace of recovery will depend on a complex combination of technical, commercial, operational and geopolitical factors. Despite differing expectations, the outlet's article summarizes opinions voiced by analysts, which broadly agree that reopening the Strait of Hormuz requires progress across four interconnected stages:

Clearing trapped ships

The first priority is moving the hundreds of vessels that remain inside the Persian Gulf.

By mid-June, several hundred ships were still awaiting safe passage. Because navigable routes through the strait remain limited, authorities will need to carefully coordinate departures to avoid congestion and minimise risks.

Not all stranded vessels are oil or LNG tankers, and some energy carriers may require inspections or repairs before they are capable of sailing safely.

Returning tankers to the Gulf

As outbound traffic clears, tanker operators must reposition vessels back into the Gulf to resume exports.

While some ships have remained anchored near the Strait of Hormuz or are already returning, many others have spent months serving alternative trade routes, particularly between the Americas and Asia.

Commercial considerations are expected to influence how quickly those ships return. Insurance premiums for transiting the Strait of Hormuz remain substantially higher than before the conflict, and in some cases adequate insurance coverage remains difficult to obtain.

For major Gulf exporters—including Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates—a steady flow of inbound tankers is also necessary to reduce the build-up of crude oil and LNG in storage, allowing production to resume more fully.

Restarting oil and gas production

Even after export capacity becomes available, restarting production is a gradual engineering process rather than an immediate switch.

Oil producers must carefully manage pressure within reservoirs to avoid damaging wells. Older fields, particularly in Iraq and Kuwait, may require especially cautious restart procedures, and some wells could struggle to return to previous production levels.

For LNG exporters, the process is even more complex. Natural gas must be cooled into liquid form before it can be loaded onto specialised tankers, a process that typically takes around two weeks.

Repairing war damage

Some of the conflict's damage will continue to affect regional energy exports long after shipping resumes.

Among the most significant impacts is damage to QatarEnergy's LNG facilities at Ras Laffan, where repairs are expected to take several years. Energy infrastructure in Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has also sustained damage, including gas processing facilities, ports and oil refineries.

Governments and energy companies will have to weigh the technical feasibility, cost and long-term commercial value of repairing damaged facilities against investing in alternative infrastructure.

Lingering risks

Although there is broad agreement on the technical steps needed to restore exports, uncertainty remains over the security environment.

Even as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, the article notes that safe shipping lanes remain heavily constrained. Analysts estimate that around 80 naval mines are still present in key navigation channels, posing an ongoing hazard to commercial vessels.

As a result, the recovery of one of the world's most important energy corridors is expected to depend not only on engineering and logistics, but also on whether shipping companies, insurers and governments are willing to accept the continuing risks of operating in an unstable security environment.

By Nazrin Sadigova