How could more air-defence systems supply reshape Ukraine's counter-offensive? Patriots are not game-changers

On May 4, 2023, the Ukrainian military shot down a Russian hypersonic missile over Kyiv using the newly acquired Patriot missile defence system. It's the first time Ukraine has been known to intercept one of Moscow's most sophisticated weapons after receiving the long-sought, American-made defence batteries from the US, Germany and the Netherlands.

For years, Russia has touted its lead in fielding new hypersonic weapons, referring to missiles that attain velocities exceeding five times the speed of sound—which is to say, a mile per second or faster. Unlike earlier high-arching ballistic missiles that attained hypersonic speeds, the new weapons travel in a flatter arc within or skipping just above the Earth's atmosphere and, in some cases, can manoeuvre evasively to avoid defences.

The deployment of Patriot batteries to Ukraine was a crucial decision and came at a critical time for the war-torn country amid Russia's continuous missile attacks that cost hundreds of lives. Ukraine confirmed that two Patriot batteries were operational last month, following training on the system from the US and Germany. As such, the interception of the hypersonic missile also represents a major success for the Patriot technology, in use on the battlefield after 20 years of upgrades.

Russia has attacked Ukraine with drones and missiles since the beginning of the conflict. Those attacks had tapered off during the summer as Russian missile inventories declined, then increased again in October 2022 when Russia received large numbers of Iranian drones. In fact, there are three main reasons why the US decided to send Patriot systems to Ukraine: to help defend against Russian missile attacks, which are pounding Ukrainian cities and disrupting utilities; to strongly convey political support; and because the United States has few other air defences to send.

The Patriot’s defence system combines surveillance, tracking, and engagement functions in one unit, which makes it stand out among other air defence systems. The system's engagements with incoming aerial threats are nearly autonomous, aside from needing a "final launch decision" from the humans operating it.

Undoubtedly, compared to the Soviet-era air defence systems and missile interceptors slated to run out soon, the US-supplied Patriot systems will be Ukraine's sole defence against Russian air supremacy. Patriots are a low-density, high-demand asset to the US air defence efforts and have one of the highest operational tempos of the joint force. Therefore, every battalion, battery and firing unit is a valuable commodity.

The increasing role of air defence systems in the Ukraine war is of particular importance to Kyiv ahead of the planned counter-offensive to recapture another significant portion of Ukrainian land seized by Russia and its proxy forces over the past decade, but especially in the year since Russia launched its full invasion. Ahead and during the counter-offensive, Kyiv expects massive artillery, missile and drone attacks from Russia on large urban areas and civilian settlements.

For obvious reasons, Ukraine is not broadcasting its attack plans beforehand. But a series of incidents in Russian or Russian-occupied territories — fuel depot explosions in Crimea, partisan attacks in Melitopol, freight trail derailments in Russia's Bryansk region — suggest Kyiv is laying the groundwork for an attack.

Notwithstanding the new air defence systems and additional US military aid package, Patriot systems are themselves vulnerable. Operating a Patriot radar system gives away its location, making it an open target for Russian attacks. This means that Patriot is not a one-stop-shop for defending Ukraine’s military assets or its people.

Moreover, Patriot is the only air defence system the US can provide Ukraine for now, while Israeli-made Iron Dome has not yet been handed over to Kyiv. This is mostly because of the stance of Tel Aviv toward the Ukraine war and Russia-Israel relations. Although Israel provides humanitarian and, to some extent, technical assistance to Kyiv, it abstained from demonstratively taking a pro-Ukraine stance, citing the safety of the ethnic Jewish community in Russia. The transfer of Iron Domes would add to Ukrainian capacity to defeat lower-tier aerial threats.

Although Patriot systems help Ukraine alleviate missile threats amid the worsening situation in the frontline, the batteries are far from game-changers in this situation. Instead, some experts suggest seeking an alternative model, namely conflict resolution and de-escalation. However, it is unlikely that Kyiv would engage in peace negotiations with Moscow without giving it a try to liberate eastern territories. Simply put, the successful military operation of the Ukrainian forces will lay a foundation for additional Western military aid to boost Kyiv's full victory against Russia.