How US, EU policies pushing Iran closer to Russia?

A recent article by Responsible Statecraft explores the geopolitical dynamics at a unique forum held in Turkmenistan’s capital, Ashgabat, on October 11, where Eurasian leaders gathered to discuss regional challenges.

The forum’s central focus was on the rare meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who was recently elected after the passing of his hardline predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi. This encounter drew attention due to Pezeshkian’s reformist stance and Moscow’s unease with Tehran’s attempts to engage with the West amid worsening US-Russia relations.

Although details of the discussion were kept under wraps, escalating Middle Eastern tensions were reportedly a key point, especially as Israel prepares for potential retaliation following Iran’s recent missile strikes. Russia’s subsequent warnings to Israel against targeting Iranian nuclear sites underscore the political friction involved, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov labeling such actions as catastrophic.

The meeting also highlighted a broader debate within Iran. While reformists aim to strengthen Western ties, the hardline faction argues for a closer relationship with Moscow, viewing Western diplomacy as unproductive. This divide surfaced publicly when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reported to EU officials on military cooperation with Russia, only to be criticized by conservative journalist Fereshteh Sadeghi for engaging with Western interests. Meanwhile, reformists face domestic challenges, with hardline lawmakers calling for Pezeshkian’s impeachment over recent diplomatic appointments.

In the West, hostility toward Iran remains entrenched, with both US presidential candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, taking a hardline stance. Trump’s mixed messages on diplomacy contrast with his actions as president, including the withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Similarly, EU leaders are focused on sanctions and have criticized Iran for its alleged missile transfers to Russia, underscoring the limits on diplomatic engagement.

In this complex context, Tehran is increasingly reliant on Moscow, especially as domestic support for pro-Western reformists wanes. Although hardliners favor closer ties with Russia, reformists acknowledge Russia’s strategic constraints. Military cooperation, such as potential Russian arms sales, remains uncertain as Moscow avoids risking relations with Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Russia’s ties with Israel add further complexity, as Moscow refrains from delivering high-grade weaponry like Su-35s and S-400s to Iran.

This evolving relationship between Tehran and Moscow may ultimately hinge on future US diplomacy. A shift in Washington’s approach could offer Iran alternatives, reducing its dependence on Russia and lessening its support for regional conflicts. However, with limited indications of a softer Western stance, Tehran appears set to maintain a cautious but pragmatic partnership with Moscow.