Is Ukraine's slow counter-offensive signal of lack of weaponry? Rethinking theory of the war

The frontline between the Ukrainian army and Russian forces occupying the east and south of the country has barely moved since last November, despite repeated Russian strikes and a Ukrainian counter-offensive. Although the optimism regarding Kyiv's counter-offensive measures was high during the last summer, military operations have been slowed by a lack of adequate firepower, from modern fighter jets to ammunition for artillery guns.

Amid the mounting death tolls, Ukraine's commander in chief, General Valeri Zaluzhny, surprised observers of the invasion with an unusually candid assessment that the warring parties had reached a deadlock along the sprawling front.

For several months, official Kyiv has been complaining about the depleting stocks of weapons/armour and the slow deliveries of additional supplies promised by the West. For example, Zaluzhny complained about the lack of air superiority against Russia in light of the counter-offensive, as Ukraine is still awaiting F-16 fighters promised by its allies.

In Kyiv’s biggest gains since the war began in February, a lightning counter-offensive in the country's northeast in early September stunned Russian troops, who fled in disarray and ceded vast swaths of occupied territory.

The Ukrainian army’s deft game of misdirection, touting a counter-offensive in the south before attacking in the northeast, caught Russia off guard. Nevertheless, in the five months since Ukraine launched an eagerly awaited counter-offensive, its troops have advanced only 17 kilometres through heavily fortified and mined Russian defence lines.

The counter-offensive has already disappointed many Ukrainian partners, some of whom are now demanding an end to military aid with the war deadlocked. However, the West's cautious provision of weapons to Ukraine has allowed the Russians to mobilize thousands and fortify positions in occupied Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, under intense international pressure, has sought to give the impression that his army’s counter-offensive has not come to a halt as was strongly suggested by his commander-in-chief. However, the chances for successful operations against Russia during the current mud season do not seem very promising and therefore, Zaluzhny will certainly not be attacking for the next few weeks unless the weather is unusual.

Moreover, despite earlier optimist opinions of Western military experts that heavy tanks and drones, if used correctly, would enable Kyiv to carry out a successful blitzkrieg, They argued that Russia's massive, well-equipped tank forces failed in the initial invasion because the Russians were doing it all wrong: they didn’t know how to coordinate their tanks, infantry and artillery in “combined arms” warfare the way Western soldiers can.

In addition to the lack of air superiority, Ukraine's other significant problem is insufficient firepower, namely artillery cover for its advancing troops. Unlike Ukraine, Russia still maintains strong firepower to inflict grave damage on the Ukrainian troops.

For instance, recently, Moscow unleashed more missiles and attack drones on Odesa over the past week in an effort to hamper Ukraine’s ability to maintain a shipping route out of its Black Sea ports. This is hardly a shocking revelation, but it is another sign that Ukraine sounds the alarm to allies about the factors that are now in Russia's favour.

It is feared Moscow will produce greater volumes of crucial weapon systems as well as procure munitions from its ally North Korea. To drive the Russian occupation forces out of Eastern Ukraine, Ukraine would have to fight smarter and use technology more effectively. Russia’s forces, in contrast, have been using more drones to target heavily defended Ukrainian positions and carrying out more assaults on foot using infantry.

Simply put, Western arms supplies to Ukraine since the inception of the war enabled Kyiv to sustain combat capabilities, but not enough to ensure an explicit breakthrough. As such, the lack of a breakthrough has caused some Ukraine fatigue among many of its formerly strong backers, including the US.

Consequently, during the recent meeting of President Joe Biden with President Volodymyr Zelensky, the former asked the Ukrainian leader to show them a clear strategy to win the war. However, seemingly official Kyiv still lacks a revised plan countering Russia in the east, thus risking losing strong support from Western supporters.

In this vein, France says that it would stop direct supplies of weaponry to Ukraine and shift the format of military support to Kyiv. Therefore, in the coming weeks, the Ukrainian troops will likely attempt to make a successful offensive to demonstrate the country's commitment to end the war with victory at the earliest convenience.