Israel-Hamas escalation to unlikely undermine Türkiye’s mediator role Mission impossible

On October 25, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking to lawmakers from the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP), hailed the Hamas Islamist organization “mujahideen,” the Arabic word for those fighting for their faith, eliciting thunderous applause in the chamber.

Since the Israel–Hamas conflict unfolded on October 7, Türkiye has been carefully trying to calibrate its stance. As a response, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Haiat said shortly afterwards that "Israel wholeheartedly rejects the Turkish president's harsh words about the terrorist organization Hamas”, adding that Hamas is a “despicable terrorist organization worse than ISIS”.

Erdogan also slammed Western powers for supporting Israel's bombing of Gaza and called for an immediate ceasefire, the unhindered entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza and for Muslim countries to work together to stop the violence.

The crisis hit at a time when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pursuing normalization with regional powers, including Israel. After years of bilateral spats, Erdogan met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York last month and invited him to visit Ankara.

At first glance, one could suggest that the Erdogan government’s close relations with Hamas have now driven it into a corner. Considering the historical ties of Ankara with Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood ideology, the Western partners, namely the US, may double pressure on Türkiye to sever ties with the Islamist organization.

At first, shocked by the violence perpetrated by Hamas, Erdogan reached out to his Israeli counterpart, Isaac Herzog. However, the strength of public support for Hamas in Turkey, the mobilization of the Israeli military, and the start of the Israeli aerial offensive in the Gaza Strip almost immediately made him shift his position.

Notwithstanding President Erdogan’s pro-Hamas stance, Ankara became one of the first countries to offer a mediation role alongside Qatar to prevent escalation and facilitate the release of civilian hostages. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has led his country’s bid, keen to promote Türkiye as a global player and replicate Ankara’s success in mediating between Ukraine and its invader, Russia, to strike a deal for Kyiv to export grain.

Although Ankara's mediation efforts have not yielded major results yet, President Erdogan will unlikely cut all its ties with Hamas even at the cost of strained relations with Israel and the US. The reason for this is simple: Erdogan sympathizes with Hamas’s cause.

Moreover, the Hamas relationship has deep roots in Turkey and will be difficult to uproot as it maintains political offices in Turkey, and Hamas leaders, including Khaled Mashal, Ismail Haniyeh, and Saleh al-Arouri, have openly met with Erdogan many times. Erdogan could have initially contributed much to the search for a compromise in this conflict.

Indeed, President Erdogan’s personal sympathy and Ankara’s enormous support made Hamas and its cause very popular in the Muslim geography. In line with this popularity, mass demonstrations and rallies of supporters of Palestine were staged in Türkiye and other Arab countries, demanding Israel's withdrawal from the war-torn Gaza.

Consequently, the immediate focus of Ankara has been on getting humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza and seeking the release of some 200 hostages taken by Hamas. Seemingly, President Erdogan's support to Hamas and the Palestinian cause will soon lead to renewed tensions with Israel or a downgrade of diplomatic relations after a short period of normalization.

The normalization with Israel came as a part of a broader reconciliation strategy with the immediate neighbourhood, including the Gulf, Egypt, and Syria.

However, Türkiye seems to be in no rush to burn all bridges with Israel and Western partners just to support Hamas's cause. Unlike previous years, this time, the Turkish government set particular limitations for itself in terms of support to Hamas and its leaders, which triggered criticism on the other end.

Hamas' political head, Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in voluntary exile in Qatar and Turkey, was in Istanbul when Hamas breached the Israeli walls. Haniyeh was politely sent away after footage on social media showed him and other Hamas members prostrating themselves in a "prayer of gratitude" while watching news of the incursion on television.

Ankara's move sounds rational in light of reports that Hamas killed some imprisoned Israeli soldiers and civilians after October 7. Simply put, Türkiye is unwilling to appear to be protecting Hamas after the group’s killing of Israeli civilians.

Indeed, such a stance surprised Hamas leadership as they expected more robust support from Türkiye and its direct involvement in the negotiation process. As such, Ankara will maintain a relatively low profile amid the recent escalation to leave enough space for the mediator role between Hamas and Israel.