ISW: Heavy equipment losses around Ukraine’s Avdiivka may undermine Russian offensive capabilities

Heavy Russian equipment losses around Ukraine’s Avdiivka will likely undermine Russian offensive capabilities over the long term.

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated on October 26 that Russian forces have suffered 5,000 personnel killed and wounded and 400 armoured vehicles losses near Avdiivka and Marinka (southwest of Donetsk City) since October 10, Caliber.Az reports citing ISW's daily assessment of the Russian offensive campaign.

Satellite imagery has confirmed that the Russian military has lost at least 109 military vehicles, primarily armored fighting vehicles and tanks, near Avdiivika between October 10 and 20.

A Ukrainian reserve officer stated that Russian forces appear to be using fewer armoured vehicles near Avdiivka, although Russian forces may be regrouping for renewed large mechanised assaults as they did between the initial mechanised assaults on October 10 and a second series of large mechanised assaults on October 19 and 20.

The Russian command has funneled additional forces to the Avdiivka front to offset heavy manpower losses and maintain the Russian military’s ability to sustain its ongoing offensive effort. The Russian command will likely struggle to offset Russian equipment losses, particularly in armoured vehicles, however.

Widespread Russian equipment losses and shortages in the first year of the full-scale invasion heavily restricted Russia’s ability to conduct effective mechanised maneuver warfare during the Russian military's winter-spring 2023 offensive, contributing to further losses in disorderly mechanised assaults near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast in January and February 2023.

Heavy losses around Vuhledar likely prevented the Russian command from committing to sustained mechanised assaults elsewhere in Ukraine later in the winter-spring 2023 offensive. Recent Russian equipment losses around Avdiivka appear to be much larger than earlier equipment losses around Vuhledar.

It remains unclear if the prospect of further heavy equipment losses will deter the Russian command from launching another series of large, mechanised assaults near Avdiivka.

Russia has gradually mobilised elements of its defence industrial base (DIB) to address equipment shortages but has not done so at a scale remotely sufficient to offset the cumulative Russian equipment losses in Ukraine.

Recent Russian equipment losses around Avdiivka will likely lead to even more pronounced Russian equipment shortages and setbacks for any progress that the Russian military has made in addressing degraded mechanised maneuver warfare capabilities.

Key Takeaways:

• Heavy Russian equipment losses around Avdiivka will likely undermine Russian offensive capabilities over the long term.
• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk- Zaporizhzhya Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast and advanced in some areas.