ISW: Vuhledar falls to Russian forces amid Ukrainian withdrawal PHOTO

As of October 1, Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal, though it remains uncertain whether they will make significant gains beyond the settlement in the near future.

Geolocated footage published on September 30 and October 1 shows Russian forces planting flags and operating freely in various areas of Vuhledar, with Russian military bloggers claiming the settlement was captured by Russian forces on October 1, Caliber.Az reports via the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

A Ukrainian serviceman confirmed on the same day that part of the Ukrainian contingent had carried out a planned withdrawal from Vuhledar to avoid encirclement. Russian bloggers reported that the Ukrainian retreat had begun at the end of September 30.

Although Russian forces reportedly failed to completely block the Ukrainian retreat routes, artillery and drones inflicted unspecified losses on the withdrawing Ukrainian troops. The scale of Ukrainian casualties remains unclear, but widespread reports of the withdrawal suggest that Ukrainian forces likely avoided a Russian encirclement that could have led to more significant losses.

Russian sources credited several units, including the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, 36th Motorised Rifle Brigade, 5th Tank Brigade, 37th Motorised Rifle Brigade, 430th Motorised Rifle Regiment, and the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade, for either directly participating in or supporting the seizure of Vuhledar. Additionally, Russian forces reportedly continued their advance west of Vodyane, located northeast of Vuhledar.

The Russian capture of Vuhledar follows a series of costly, failed assaults in the area over the past two and a half years. A prominent Russian military blogger celebrated the news by recalling a conversation with a senior Russian officer, who had warned that attacking Vuhledar in March 2022 would leave Russian forces "stuck".

The blogger implied the officer was wrong, given Vuhledar’s eventual capture, but failed to acknowledge the two-year struggle to advance in the region.

Russia made two major offensives to seize Vuhledar between October-November 2022 and January-February 2023, both of which resulted in significant personnel and equipment losses. These defeats notably caused heavy attrition to the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

By Aghakazim Guliyev