Iceland vote puts EU membership back on the table

Icelanders will vote on August 29 on whether to resume negotiations on European Union membership, a decision that could have implications for both the country’s relationship with Brussels and the bloc’s wider enlargement drive, Euronews reports.

A “Yes” vote would not mean Iceland joins the EU. It would give the government a mandate to restart accession talks, with a potential membership referendum to follow, possibly as early as 2028.

Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir has described the vote as a decision on whether to reopen negotiations and allow Icelandic voters to have the final say on any eventual agreement.

Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 following a severe financial crisis, but talks were suspended after a Eurosceptic coalition came to power in 2013. The government formally told Brussels in 2015 that it did not intend to resume negotiations.

The issue returned to the political agenda after a pro-EU coalition took office in 2024 and pledged to hold a referendum on restarting accession talks.

The debate has since taken place against a changing geopolitical backdrop. Rising tensions in the Arctic, US President Donald Trump’s threats involving Greenland and growing interest in the region’s resources and trade routes have strengthened arguments for closer European cooperation.

But the referendum campaign has largely focused on domestic economic concerns, particularly fishing and agriculture.

Fishing is the most sensitive issue. Fish and marine products account for around 40% of Iceland’s exports, while control over its waters is closely linked to national sovereignty and identity.

Any accession negotiations would therefore face the difficult question of Iceland’s relationship with the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, which governs fishing quotas and catch limits across the bloc.

Iceland’s fishing industry has warned that EU membership could reduce the country’s ability to act independently as a coastal state. Agriculture and fisheries are also expected to be among the most difficult areas of negotiations.

Opinion polls suggest a close contest. A July Maskína poll put support for resuming talks at 53%, against 47% opposed. A Gallup poll earlier this month showed the two sides tied at 46%, with 8% undecided.

If voters back negotiations, Iceland would enter the accession process with a significant advantage over many other candidates because of its existing integration with the European single market through the European Economic Area. It has already completed 11 of the 33 negotiating chapters.

The main challenge would remain fisheries. Iceland is likely to seek special arrangements or exemptions from the Common Fisheries Policy, potentially creating tensions with other EU fishing interests.

For Brussels, a “Yes” vote would provide fresh momentum to an enlargement agenda that has gained importance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and amid uncertainty over US foreign policy.

A “No” vote, by contrast, would represent a setback for EU enlargement and could push the question of Icelandic membership off the political agenda for years or even decades.

It would also raise questions about how Iceland could deepen cooperation with the EU on security and defence while remaining outside the bloc.

For Iceland, however, the immediate choice is narrower: whether to reopen the door to negotiations and determine what membership could offer before deciding whether to enter the EU.

By Aghakazim Guliyev