White House: Warming relations with Armenia and cooling with Georgia US misalignment in the South Caucasus

The parliamentary elections in Georgia on October 26 will take place just before the US presidential elections and during the height of the American election campaign. This timing inherently benefits the ruling Georgian Dream party—even if there is discontent in the US over its highly likely victory.

Before Election Day on November 5, 2024, the current administration under Joe Biden is unlikely to initiate a "colour revolution" in Georgia to swiftly "overturn the results" of the October 26 vote, thereby distracting public attention from the US elections. However, there is a possibility that neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris, should she win, will recognize the results of the Georgian elections if the "Democrats" remain in power in the White House. The Georgian authorities have already been warned about this by the White House.

In this context, a kind of "hospitality deficit" act was organized against Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze in the US The head of the Georgian government, who travelled to the US to speak at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, was initially invited to meet with President Joe Biden, only for the invitation to be later rescinded.

“It's not serious; they sent the invitation three days ago and then cancelled it. This was a kind of humanitarian act in favour of the opposition, but it will have no practical effect for the opposition,” Kobakhidze responded to this démarche from the host side.

The preferences of the Georgian Dream in the current US elections are no secret to anyone. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated earlier this summer that a victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential elections would hasten the end of the war in Ukraine.

“We cannot interfere in the elections of a major country like the US; it's not our business. The only thing that can be said is that if Trump wins these elections, the war in Ukraine will end sooner,” the Georgian media quoted the prime minister. In this way, he made it clear who is preferred by the "Georgian Dream" for the future presidency of the United States.

This has become especially evident from today's (October 1) campaign advertisements of the Georgian Dream. On billboards and in video clips, the 41st candidate on the party's electoral list is juxtaposed against peaceful cities in Georgia, while the numbers of opposition parties are shown against the backdrop of war-torn cities in Ukraine. Legislative initiatives initiated by the "Georgian Dream" to protect family values and ban LGBT propaganda further align the party with American Republicans and Donald Trump, who emphasize conservatism. Therefore, one can be confident that if Donald Trump wins the election, the "Georgian Dream" will not face significant issues in having its likely victory on October 26 recognized.

The negative attitude of the current White House administration toward the ruling party Georgian Dream sharply contrasts with its "super-positive" stance towards the Republic of Armenia and its leaders, led by Nikol Pashinyan. While the Georgian Dream is criticized for its simple unwillingness to confront Russia, the Americans "turn a blind eye" to Pashinyan's real multi-billion-dollar assistance in circumventing Western sanctions imposed on Russia. In particular, the White House long "overlooked" the supply of dual-use goods through Armenia to the Russian military-industrial complex, and today it does not react to the fact that Armenia has become the main channel for exporting gold and diamonds from Russia to the UAE and Hong Kong.

Moreover, Armenia seems to have adapted well to the role of a "spoiled calf," which, according to the Russian proverb, "suckles from two mothers." At a recent open discussion on "Democracy Results" in New York, USAID Administrator Samantha Power announced that USAID and the US State Department are working in Congress to provide Armenia with $20.6 billion. According to Power, these funds will be directed toward "promoting cybersecurity, border and energy security, as well as increasing resilience." In comparison, for war-torn Ukraine, which has a population several times larger than Armenia, Joe Biden recently ordered military assistance amounting to about $8 billion. This is presented in the Democrats' election campaign as "substantial support for Ukraine."

To recall, after the adoption of the "foreign agents" law in Georgia, the US announced the suspension of assistance programs to Georgia totalling over $95 million. This "aid" seems microscopic compared to the promised $20.6 billion for Armenia.

Ahead of the US presidential elections, the Democratic Party has made its preferences clear regarding "favourites" in the South Caucasus. For Kamala Harris, these favourites have become the Armenians. Meanwhile, representatives of the Armenian lobby are so "diligent" in their work for the Democrats and Kamala Harris that they recently sparked another election scandal.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, demanded the dismissal of Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova. His ultimatum was motivated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to a weapons factory in Pennsylvania, which Markarova organized but intentionally did not invite any Republicans to the event.

"I demand that you immediately fire the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova," Johnson wrote on social media platform X.

Meanwhile, ethnic Armenian and former Ukrainian Finance Minister Oksana Markarova is no ordinary diplomat. Many analysts view her as a candidate for the next Prime Minister of Ukraine. In other words, Markarova is currently on the "diplomatic bench," but after Kamala Harris’s victory, she could very well be "strongly recommended" to the Ukrainian authorities as the head of government. This would enable the Armenian lobby to gain significantly greater influence in Ukraine compared to the times when Markarova headed the Ministry of Finance alongside Arsen Avakov, who led the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

The fact that ethnic Armenian Oksana Markarova used her position to ensure that the "Ukrainian factor" worked exclusively in favour of the Democrats and Kamala Harris fully aligns with the recent "courtesies" extended by the latter toward the Armenian lobby and Armenia.

Likewise, the presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris, in congratulating Armenia on its Independence Day, mentioned both the "genocide" and the "right of Armenians displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh to safely return to their homes," while naturally saying nothing about the similar right of Azerbaijanis to return to their homes in the Republic of Armenia. Although the Armenian lobby criticizes Biden, Harris, and the Democrats for their "inaction" during the elimination of the remnants of the separatist "Artsakh" in September of last year, Armenian nationalists dislike Trump even more.

Therefore, there is no doubt that the Armenian lobby will support the Democrats and Kamala Harris in the elections, and should she win, the "tilt" in American stakes in the South Caucasus from Georgia to Armenia is likely to intensify.

Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, for Caliber.Az