Azerbaijani leader’s messages, Putin’s ultimatum, Hezbollah head’s death among key developments weekly review by Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, which covers the key news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

Azerbaijan commemorated Remembrance Day for the fourth time on September 27. Azerbaijani Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ilham Aliyev issued the order for a counteroffensive in Karabakh on September 27, 2020, marking the beginning of a glorious 44-day journey that culminated in a triumphant victory over Armenia and the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

May Allah grant eternal peace to the souls of Azerbaijani martyrs who sacrificed their lives for the homeland. The first session of the Azerbaijani parliament of the seventh convocation was held on September 23. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed the MPs, discussing a wide range of issues related to the prospects and challenges facing Azerbaijan.

The president identified the top priority for the country as ensuring national security, which primarily involves strengthening the Azerbaijani armed forces and defence industry. This focus is driven by the overall escalation of geopolitical tension worldwide and the increasing militarisation by Armenia. 

President Aliyev stated clearly that the Armenian leadership, with the support of certain Western countries, is harboring revanchist plans. President Aliyev cited the hypocrisy of Western policy as an example, highlighting the contrasting approaches of major world powers towards fascist Germany and another occupying country -essentially similarly fascist Armenia. 

“After World War II, no one offered a peace treaty to Nazi Germany. Fascist Germany was divided into several parts, and the capitulating fascist state was punished. In contrast, the capitulated fascist state here has not only avoided punishment but has also received numerous privileges,” the president stated, citing $250 million allocated to Armenia by the US and the assistance rendered to Yerevan by Europeans through the so-called "European Peace Facility".

Among the priority tasks for enhancing Azerbaijan's security, President Aliyev also emphasised the importance of strengthening ideological security. Continuing the theme of security, another significant event is worth noting. The Azerbaijani Air Force has received JF-17C (Block-III) modern all-weather multirole aircraft, developed as a joint project by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group of China.

These aircraft were presented to President Aliyev at Heydar Aliyev International Airport. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov participated in the "Summit for the Future" during the High-Level Week of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. 

During his visit, he held meetings with several heads of state, officials, and representatives from various organisations. While speaking from the high podium of the UN, Bayramov emphasised Baku's commitment to the goals of sustainable development and stated that "Azerbaijan has ushered in a new era by ending the unlawful use of force and restoring its rights to sovereignty and territorial integrity, as protected by the Charter."

Touching upon Azerbaijan's upcoming presidency at the COP29 conference in November, the Azerbaijani foreign minister emphasised Baku's determination to unite both developed and developing countries in addressing climate challenges. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Bayramov also met with his Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also attended the meeting.

According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, "the sides agreed to make additional efforts to conclude a Peace Agreement and establish interstate relations as soon as possible." The phrasing suggests that the sides not only failed to reach any substantial agreements but also had no plans to discuss significant issues. This is further corroborated by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's speech at the General Assembly, which once again showcased Yerevan's strategy of stalling and obstructing the peace process.

The Armenian prime minister reiterated his willingness to sign the already agreed-upon articles of the peace agreement with Baku, while proposing to discuss the remaining points later. "There is no peace agreement that can resolve all issues at once. Even after a treaty is signed, countries may continue concluding new agreements and reach further treaties," the prime minister said. Yerevan's goal is clear to bind Baku with a limited version of the peace treaty while securing recognition of Armenia's territorial integrity by maintaining claims to Azerbaijani territories in its constitution.

Pashinyan said that after the agreement is signed, it must be reviewed by the country's Constitutional Court to ensure its compliance with the constitution. If the court finds that the treaty contradicts the constitution, discussions may arise about changing the constitution itself. Thus, to determine the value of the agreement we sign, Azerbaijan would have to wait for the verdict of Armenia's Constitutional Court. 

This is an unprecedented audacity; even if we were to accept this, where is the guarantee that the Armenian people would vote in favour of such a change in a referendum? Pashinyan once again steers the peace process into the realm of uncertainty and even impossibility. We are left with no choice but to affirm President Aliyev's statement, as I mentioned earlier: Armenia does not seek peace; rather, it is preparing for war.

 Ukraine - Russia

The Russian army continues its offensive along the entire front line in Donbas, creating a threatening situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in several areas. Fighting is ongoing within Toretsk and around the settlements of Vuhledar, Kurakhove and Selydove. However, the Ukrainian forces are still managing to maintain their defensive positions near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has traveled to New York to present his victory plan to Biden.

The US president assured Zelenskyy that support for Ukraine will continue and announced a new military aid package for Kyiv totaling $2.4 billion. It has previously been stated that the US will provide a total of $8 billion to Ukraine by the end of Biden's presidency. Amid reports of Americans delaying aid following Ukrainian operations in the Kursk region, such a decision regarding generous assistance may seem puzzling. However, it makes sense when viewed as a response to Russian leader Vladimir Putin's statement asserting Russia's right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus. 

The Russian president did not clarify what constitutes aggression or in what form it might be recognized, and this ambiguity paradoxically lends his statement an ultimatum-like quality. It can be concluded that what many believed to be a near ceasefire has once again fallen through, seemingly because both sides believe they can achieve a more advantageous negotiating position on the battlefield.

Middle East

Throughout the recent week, the Israeli army has conducted powerful airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon as part of Operation "Northern Arrows". 

Several senior leaders of the group have also been killed. The reports emerged confirming the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Tel Aviv reports that Hezbollah command centres and missile installations are situated within residential buildings. While the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) urge civilians near expected strike zones to evacuate, completely avoiding casualties among the civilians is not feasible. 

Lebanese authorities have stated that as a result of Israeli airstrikes conducted in the country since September 23, at least 569 people have been killed, including 50 children and 94 women. Meanwhile, Netanyahu announced that Israel is preparing for a ground operation in Lebanon. 

The US, in collaboration with France, proposed a 21-day ceasefire plan for Israel and Hezbollah, after which negotiations would be initiated. Iran has not yet directly intervened in the conflict, but it can be inferred that the issue of Iran's support for Hezbollah was discussed between Western representatives and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York. 

Overall, there seems to be a developing thaw in relations between the West and Iran. However, at this moment news broke of Nasrallah's assassination. Notably, President Biden was quick to distance the US from involvement in the killing of the Hezbollah leader.

 "The US had no information about this and did not participate in the operations of the Israel Defense Forces," Biden stated in response to a journalist's question. It can be inferred that Israel is once again escalating tensions, leaving the US with little choice but to stand firmly in defence of Israel and assist in eliminating all threats in one decisive action.