Joint military exercise in Belarus fuels EU anxiety over China’s intentions

As China strengthens its ties with Russia and Belarus, the European Union is reconsidering its relationship with Beijing, raising concerns over a potential rising threat.

The South China Morning Post reports that a joint military exercise in Belarus, involving Chinese and Belarusian forces, has heightened European anxiety. The exercise, dubbed “Eagle Assault,” took place just 5 kilometres from the Polish border, symbolizing China’s bolstering of military connections with Belarus, a close ally of Russia in its conflict with Ukraine.

A Polish official commented on the situation, pointing out the misinterpretation of European efforts to pressure China into influencing Belarus. Instead of diplomatic pressure, China sent its People’s Liberation Army to participate in military drills with Belarus. This move is perceived as China’s growing alignment with Europe’s adversaries, stirring security concerns across the continent. Belarus, already a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, showcased its military ties with Beijing through this exercise, reinforcing the notion of a burgeoning Eurasian axis.

NATO has labelled China as a key supporter of Russia’s war against Ukraine, noting Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow and its substantial support for Russia’s defence industry. Although China insists on maintaining normal trade relations with Russia and controlling the export of dual-use equipment, the symbolic implications of the joint exercise in Belarus are undeniable. NATO views this as a warning shot, reflecting China’s increasing comfort in supporting Russia despite European objections.

The European Union, traditionally less hawkish towards China than NATO, is now grappling with the implications of Beijing’s support for Moscow. Despite China’s claims of neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, many EU officials believe Beijing is firmly in Russia’s corner. This shift in perception is bolstered by China’s Eurasian envoy, Li Hui, who recently conveyed Russian talking points in Brussels, suggesting Ukraine’s inevitable defeat and urging Europe to acknowledge this reality.

Influential voices within Europe, such as Abigael Vasselier from the Mercator Institute for China Studies, are advocating for a reevaluation of the EU’s approach to China. Vasselier’s recent report calls for the EU to recognize China as a security threat, in addition to its roles as a partner, competitor, and systemic rival. The report highlights China’s substantial export of dual-use products to Russia, essential for weapons production, urging the EU to present China with a stark choice: curb support for Russia or face increased consequences.

The EU’s frustration with China’s ongoing support for Russia was further amplified by President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s failed attempts to engage Beijing in a peace initiative. Despite Xi Jinping’s promises, China’s actions, including its alternative peace proposal promoting Russia’s security claims, have only deepened European scepticism.

This growing tension has led to the breaking of taboos within the EU, with Chinese firms now being blacklisted for aiding Russia. This shift in policy marks a significant hardening of the EU’s stance towards China. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent “peace mission,” which included stops in Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing, has further complicated the EU’s unified approach to China, exposing deep divisions within the bloc.

The South China Morning Post’s report underscores the evolving geopolitical landscape, where Europe must navigate the complexities of its relationship with China amid growing security concerns and the need for a cohesive strategy to address Beijing’s support for Moscow.