Lithuanian intelligence: Russia expanding Baltic military presence

Russia is increasing its military presence in the Baltic Sea due to security concerns over access to its Kaliningrad region and the protection of maritime routes, according to a Lithuanian intelligence official.

Julius Katinas, deputy director of Lithuania’s Second Department of Operational Services, said at a NATO Parliamentary Assembly committee meeting in Vilnius that Moscow is reinforcing its activities in the region, including measures linked to safeguarding its so-called “shadow fleet," Caliber.Az reports via foreign media. 

He said Russia is particularly focused on security around Kaliningrad Oblast, the strategic Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, citing concerns over regional military pressure and potential threats linked to the war in Ukraine. Katinas argued that the increased Russian military presence is affecting the security environment for Baltic states.

According to his assessment, Russia is also taking steps to protect its maritime logistics and energy export routes across the Baltic Sea, including deploying additional support assets for vessels associated with its “shadow fleet.” He referenced reported airspace violations observed by Estonia as part of broader regional tensions.

Lithuanian military intelligence representatives said Kaliningrad remains a key strategic hub for Russia due to its ice-free port and its role in logistics operations extending to regions such as Syria and Africa. They also noted that a significant share of Russian oil exports passes through the Baltic Sea, making it economically and strategically important for Moscow.

Katinas further claimed that Russia has been jamming GPS signals in the region, disrupting maritime navigation and affecting civilian aviation and scientific systems.

He added that although Russian ground forces in Kaliningrad have been reduced during the war in Ukraine, Moscow is continuing military reforms and could rebuild its capabilities in the region depending on how the conflict develops or concludes.

By Sabina Mammadli