Media: Europe faces crucial decision on future of Ukrainian refugees

As the war in Ukraine drags on, the question for millions of refugees has shifted—from why they should return home to why they should stay in Europe.

A decision now rests with Brussels, not Kyiv, as the European Union prepares to determine the future of its temporary protection scheme for displaced Ukrainians, Caliber.Az reports per Euractiv.

More than 4.2 million Ukrainians remain under the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive (TPD), first enacted in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion.

This marked the bloc’s first use of the measure, granting rapid access to housing, employment, education, and healthcare across member states. With the directive set to expire in March 2025, EU institutions must now choose whether to deepen refugee integration or prepare for a potential mass return, should conditions permit.

The European Commission is expected to unveil a new proposal on the legal framework for Ukrainian protection today, coinciding with deliberations over long-term “exit strategies.” 

A joint study by MPI Europe and the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) sheds light on what motivates Ukrainians to remain in host countries. Key factors include job assistance, access to services, and family ties.

Interestingly, while unemployment or housing alone do not strongly influence long-term settlement, government support in job placement significantly does, especially for skilled Ukrainians navigating bureaucratic or language hurdles.

Germany and Poland stand out for their robust welfare systems and employment services, helping them retain larger numbers of refugees. In contrast, countries offering limited support have seen fewer long-term stays.

Despite prolonged displacement, the desire to return remains high. In 2023, 91% of refugees expressed a long-term wish to go back to Ukraine—a sentiment that has not waned. The study reveals consistent return hopes across countries, from 80% in Hungary to 98% in Moldova—an unusual pattern in protracted refugee crises.

Yet only about 15% plan to return in the short term, often for brief visits. Wealthier countries such as Czechia and Poland report higher short-term return intentions, likely due to financial means. However, returns remain conditional, primarily on improved security, job prospects, and whether occupied territories are liberated.

Among those who have already returned to Ukraine, fewer than 25% report being able to meet most or all of their basic needs, with many still facing difficulties in accessing employment, electricity, and other essential services.

By Aghakazim Guliyev