NATO concern grows over potential French far-right government entry

Concerns are rising within NATO regarding the possible inclusion of the French far-right in government and its potential implications for alliance cohesion, particularly concerning France's influence and commitment to Ukraine.

NATO diplomats, speaking anonymously to foreign media about sensitive matters, expressed serious apprehensions regarding the far-right's potential ascent in French politics, Caliber.Az reports.

This concern coincides with the Rassemblement National (RN) party's expected gains in the National Assembly following the second round of early parliamentary elections on July 7.

Simultaneously, NATO's eastern members are becoming more critical of the alliance's presence on Europe's eastern flank, viewing recent political developments as potentially disrupting unity and continuity in support for Ukraine.

According to several NATO diplomats interviewed by Euractiv, the RN's potential role in the next government or as a significant minority in the National Assembly raises doubts about France's future influence within NATO. The RN's questioning of NATO's purpose and aid to Ukraine adds to these concerns.

Unlike smaller NATO countries, France is part of a group alongside the US, Germany, and the UK—known as the 'Quad'—that significantly shapes NATO's long-term strategy. France's policy influence surpasses that of smaller nations like Hungary or Slovakia, which have opposed strategies supporting Ukraine, potentially setting a problematic precedent favoring Russia.

Macron's strategic adjustments, such as bolstering NATO's eastern defences with troops in Romania, could face reassessment in the context of a coalition government that includes the RN, amidst challenges to French military policy traditionally under presidential purview.

The NATO diplomats also acknowledged the possibility of a gradual shift ("soft exit") from NATO's military command, particularly concerning as US election dynamics, including the potential re-election of Donald Trump, loom in the background.

When asked about NATO's commitments to Ukraine amidst political shifts, a US State Department official downplayed concerns, emphasizing that electoral cycles are part of alliance dynamics.

The RN's stance on NATO has evolved, softening in recent years despite earlier calls for withdrawal from NATO's military command and reconsideration of strategic agreements with the US. Current RN leadership has affirmed a commitment to NATO integration amid ongoing conflicts like the war in Ukraine.

As things stand, while the RN's influence in a French government might modify NATO-related policies, immediate withdrawal from the alliance is unlikely, Duclos noted, indicating potential alignment with other member states to mitigate concerns about significant policy changes.