Why China's not yet ready to replace America on the world stage

Foreign Policy’s recent article dissects a critical turning point in global affairs: the unraveling of U.S. leadership under Donald Trump’s second presidency and the uncertain prospects of a Chinese-led world order. While many observers have long predicted that American retrenchment would fuel China’s rise, the piece makes a compelling argument that neither superpower is currently capable—or willing—to lead the international system.

The article identifies Trump’s foreign policy as a key driver of global disorder. His administration has systematically dismantled the post–World War II U.S.-led liberal order by cutting foreign aid, weakening alliances, slashing support for multilateral institutions, and hollowing out national security structures. By doing so, Washington is not just stepping back—it is actively tearing down the architecture it once built. This vacuum has been interpreted by many as an open invitation for Beijing to step in.

Yet Foreign Policy warns against prematurely declaring the dawn of a Chinese-led world, or “Pax Sinica.” The article outlines four major reasons why China, despite its ambitions, is not ready to assume such a role.

First, the United States still possesses overwhelming hard power advantages. Trump may be disengaging diplomatically, but America continues to enact policies aimed at undercutting China’s rise—from semiconductor production boosts under the CHIPS Act to new naval expansion initiatives. The U.S. remains a formidable force and unlikely to concede strategic ground quietly.

Second, China’s global military presence is minimal in comparison. While the U.S. operates hundreds of overseas bases, China maintains just two. The Chinese path to power has been primarily economic, not military—a contrast to the U.S. ascent during and after World War II, which was rooted in global alliances and military victories. As a result, Beijing lacks the infrastructure to project global influence at scale.

Third, internal vulnerabilities cast a shadow over China’s global ambitions. Xi Jinping’s break with leadership succession norms, coupled with economic stagnation, has exposed the fragility of the Chinese model. The country’s GDP relative to the U.S. has slipped since 2020, and the yuan’s path to becoming a dominant global currency is hampered by capital controls and low international trust.

Fourth, China lacks a coherent and compelling leadership vision. Though it has increased its U.N. footprint and brokered high-profile diplomatic deals, much of its foreign policy still appears reactive or aimed at countering U.S. influence rather than setting a positive global agenda. A Pax Sinica would require more than strategic opposition—it would demand a reimagining of global governance led by Beijing, something it has yet to articulate.

The article’s central thesis is clear: while U.S. leadership is in decline, China is not yet in a position to replace it. Instead, the world faces the prospect of a "leaderless order"—a precarious geopolitical limbo marked by bipolar power without global guidance.

By Vugar Khalilov