How China’s advanced power network eclipses that of other countries Race for AI dominance may already be over

Rui Ma, a leading expert in Chinese technology and founder of Tech Buzz China, recently returned from a research trip across China with a stark warning for Silicon Valley: the US power grid is so weak that the race over AI dominance may already be over.

While not an energy expert, Ma told Fortune magazine that after numerous meetings with insiders, she concluded that in China, building sufficient power for data centers “is no longer up for debate.” She emphasized this point with a statement published on her social media: “This is a stark contrast to the US, where AI growth is increasingly tied to debates over data center power consumption and grid limitations.”

The issue is critical because data centers are the backbone of AI. McKinsey estimates that between 2025 and 2030, companies worldwide will need to invest $6.7 trillion in new capacity to meet AI’s soaring demand.

However, the US faces a major bottleneck: its grid. A Deloitte survey cited grid stress as the primary barrier to US data center growth. Cities’ power systems are so overburdened that some firms are building private plants. Meanwhile, household electricity bills in states like Ohio have surged—up $15 a month this summer—sparking public backlash.

The article looks at an analysis by Goldman Sachs, which summed up the challenge: “AI’s insatiable power demand is outpacing the grid’s decade-long development cycles, creating a critical bottleneck.” Stifel Nicolaus even warned of an S&P 500 correction, arguing this boom in data center investment is a one-off event while consumer spending weakens.

China, however, faces no such limitation. “Electricity isn’t even a question,” said David Fishman, a Chinese energy expert who has tracked the sector for years. He noted that China adds more new demand annually than the total electricity consumption of Germany. Entire rural provinces are covered in solar panels, and one province alone matches India’s total power supply.

“US policymakers should be hoping China stays a competitor and not an aggressor,” Fishman warned. “Because right now they can’t compete effectively on the energy infrastructure front.”

According to the article, it is decades of overbuilding and investment that have given China vast energy reserves. Fishman said the country’s reserve margin has “never dipped below 80%–100% nationwide,” meaning it always has double the capacity it needs. Instead of fearing AI’s energy drain, China views it as a way to “soak up oversupply.” By contrast, US grids typically operate at 15% reserve margins—or less—leaving little room for surging AI loads. In states like Texas and California, authorities routinely issue red alerts when demand peaks.

Even if China’s AI demand outpaces renewable growth, Fishman said, the country can easily “tap idle coal plants” while scaling up sustainable sources. “It’s not preferable,” he admitted, “but it’s doable.”

Underlying this advantage is a fundamental governance difference. China’s energy planning follows long-term, state-driven policies that anticipate demand before it arises. “They’re set up to hit grand slams,” Fishman said. “The US, at best, can get on base.”

In America, major infrastructure projects depend on private capital, which typically expects returns within three to five years—far too short for decade-long power projects.

“Capital is really biased toward shorter-term returns,” Fishman observed, noting that billions flow into “the nth iteration of software as a service” while energy projects struggle.

By contrast, China directs state funds to strategic sectors ahead of need, accepting failures but ensuring capacity when required. Without similar public investment, Fishman warned, the US will fall further behind.

“The gap in capability is only going to continue to become more obvious—and grow in the coming years,” he concluded.

By Nazrin Sadigova